基于模糊证据推理的TBM隧洞施工安全风险评价

Fuzzy Evidence Based Reasoning for TBM Tunnel Construction Safety Risk Evaluation

为确定TBM隧洞施工安全状态及关键影响因素,结合TBM隧洞施工特点,构建了TBM隧洞施工安全风险评价指标体系,提出了基于二元语义的组合赋权法,引入多级相交情况下的模糊正态分布作为模糊评价等级的隶属度函数分布,构建了TBM隧洞施工安全风险综合评价模型,并以南水北调安阳市西部调水工程为例进行分析。结果表明:施工安全风险水平处于中等风险,其中安全事故风险为较低风险;技术风险、设备风险、管理风险和自然风险为中等风险;地质风险为较高风险,应重点控制。

In order to determine the safety status and key influencing factors of TBM tunnel construction,combined with the characteristics of TBM tunnel construction,the safety risk evaluation index system of TBM tunnel construction was built and the combination weighting method based on two-tuple linguistic was proposed.The fuzzy normal distribution under the condition of multi-level intersection was introduced as the membership function distribution of fuzzy evaluation grade and the comprehensive evaluation model of safety risk of TBM tunnel construction was built.It conducted analysis by taking the Western Water Diversion Route of Anyang City in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example.The results show that the construction safety risk level is in the middle risk level,and the safety accident risk is a lower risk;technical risk,equipment risk,management risk and natural risk are medium risks;geological risk is a higher risk and should be emphasized for control.