基于层次分析法和模糊评价法的中国近海盆地CO_(2)封存适宜性评价

Suitability assessment on CO_(2) storage in offshore basins of China based on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

CO_(2)排放造成全球气温多变,“多米诺骨牌被推翻”导致一系列环境问题接踵而至,因此,开展CO_(2)海上封存研究对实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标具有重要意义。以中国近海盆地为研究对象,运用层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价相结合的方法,从封存安全性、封存规模、封存可行性3方面考虑,构建了由3个一级指标、8个二级指标组成的CO_(2)封存适宜性评价指标体系,对中国近海十大盆地的CO_(2)封存适宜性进行评价。评价结果显示,中国近海盆地CO_(2)封存适宜性优劣顺序依次为:珠江口盆地、东海陆架盆地、渤海湾盆地、北部湾盆地、莺歌海盆地(莺歌海组)、南黄海盆地、北黄海盆地、琼东南盆地、台西盆地、台西南盆地,其中,珠江口盆地和东海陆架盆地可作为CO_(2)近海封存的首选盆地。

CO_(2) emissions lead to global temperature changes and“dominoes are overturned”,triggering a series of environmental problems one after another.Therefore,CO_(2) offshore storage is an important issue to achieve the goal of“carbon peak and carbon neutrality”.Taking China offshore basins as the research object,the method of AHP(analytic hierarchy process)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was used,three aspects of storage security,storage scale and storage feasibility were considered,and a CO_(2) storage suitability evaluation index system was constructed with three first-level indicators and eight second-level indicators,upon which the CO_(2) storage suitability and favorable areas of 10 offshore basins in China was assessed.Results shows that the offshore basin CO_(2) suitability in a descendant order is:Pearl River Mouth Basin,East China Sea Shelf Basin,Bohai Bay Basin,Beibu Bay Basin,Yinggehai Basin(Yinggehai Formation),South Yellow Sea Basin,North Yellow Sea Basin,Qiongdongnan Basin,Taixi Basin,and Southwest Taiwan Basin.Among them,the Pearl River Mouth Basin and the East China Sea Shelf Basin can be regarded as the preferred basins for CO_(2) offshore storage.