在山西小流域洪水精细化模拟条件下基于分布式水文水动力模型的洪水预报研究

Flood Forecasting Research Based on Distributed Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Model under High Precision Simulation Conditions in a Small Watershed in Shanxi Province

山西省降水在年内分布极不均匀,汛期暴雨高度集中暴雨强度大,洪涝灾害严重且容易发生溃坝及滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害,致灾性强,对人民群众生命财产安全造成巨大威胁。如何提高洪涝灾害预报能力,提升灾害防治水平,对于最大限度地减少灾害损失具有重要意义。针对山西省对准确高效的洪水预报的紧迫需求,研究在小流域范围内基于物理机制的分布式水文水动力模型,在此基础上,开展基于多模型的洪水集合预报技术和模型参数优化方法研究,并以山西省峪口河流域为例,进行流域洪水预报的应用示范。

Precipitation in Shanxi Province exhibits extreme uneven distribution throughout the year,with high concentration and intensity of heavy rainfall during the flood season.This leads to severe flood and waterlogging disasters,as well as secondary hazards such as dam collapses,landslides,and debris flows,posing a significant threat to the safety of people's lives and property.Improving the ability to predict flood disasters and enhancing the level of disaster prevention and control is of great significance for minimizing disaster losses to the greatest extent possible.In response to the urgent need for accurate and efficient flood forecasting in Shanxi Province,this research focuses on a distributed hydrological and hydrodynamic model based on physical mechanisms within a small watershed.On this basis,a study is conducted on ensemble flood forecasting techniques and model parameter optimization methods based on multiple models.The Yukou River Basin in Shanxi Province was used as a case study for demonstrating the application of basin flood forecasting.