基于组合赋权-VIKOR的城市突发事件应急管理能力评价

Evaluation of Urban Emergency Management Capability Based on Combinatorial Weighting-VIKOR

为了提高防范、应对与处置城市各类突发事件的能力,基于应急管理四阶段理论,从事前预防、事发响应、事中处置、事后恢复4个阶段选取了25个二级指标,通过AHP-熵权法确定主客观权重,再由博弈论计算组合权重,应用VIKOR构建城市突发事件应急管理能力评价模型,并通过障碍度模型识别关键影响因素,最后以安徽省为例评估各个城市面对突发事件的应急管理能力水平。结果表明:安徽省应急管理能力存在区域差异,总体上呈现南强北弱的空间格局;政府一般公共服务财政投入比重、人均绿地面积、卫生机构人员密度、医疗卫生机构密度、政府交通运输财政投入比重是制约应急管理能力水平的五大关键因素。

In order to improve the ability of preventing,responding to and disposing of all kinds of emergencies in cities,based on the four-stage theory of emergency management,25 secondary indicators were selected from four stages:prevention before the incident,response when the incident happened,handling during the incident and recovery after the incident.The subjective and objective weights were determined by AHP-entropy weight method,and combined weights were calculated according to game theory.The VIKOR was applied to construct the evaluation model of urban emergency response capability and the influencing factors were analyzed through the obstacle degree model.Finally,taking Anhui province as an example,the level of emergency management capacity of each city in the face of emergencies was evaluated.The results show that there are regional differences in the emergency response capacity of Anhui province,generally showing a spatial pattern of strong in the south and weak in the north.The proportion of government financial investment in general public services,per capita green area,the personnel density of health institutions,the density of medical and health institutions,and the proportion of government financial investment in transportation are the five most key factors restricting the level of emergency response capacity.