优化灰色模型在变形预测中的应用研究

Application and research of grey model in deformation prediction

针对变形监测中数据存在模糊性以及不确定性的问题,将灰色模型引入大型工程建筑物变形监测的数据处理过程中,使模糊性强、不确定性大的监测数据转化为更加精确的数据,以实现建筑物变形预测。运用灰色模型理论建立GM(1,1)预测模型,并对其预测结果进行分析,通过残差修正方法对不合格的地方进行优化,建立合理的预测模型。以某一大型工程建筑物为研究区,从实际数据出发,通过建立DGM(1,1)模型解决了经典GM(1,1)模型的缺陷,构建该区域建筑物的变形预测模型,以验证提出的变形预测方法的有效性。

Aiming at the ambiguity and uncertainty problems existed in data during deformation monitoring,a grey model is introduced into the data processing process of deformation monitoring of large engineering buildings to convert monitoring data with strong ambiguity and uncertainty into more accurate data to achieve deformation prediction of buildings.A GM(1.1)prediction model has been established by using grey model theory and its prediction results are also analyzed.The residual correction method is used to optimize unqualified areas and make a reasonable prediction model establish.Taking a large engineering building as the research area,starting from actual data,the defects of the classic GM(1.I)model are solved by establishing a DGM(1,I)model and a deformation prediction model for buildings in the area is constructed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed deformation prediction method.