中国乡村产业兴旺水平的时空演变及影响因素研究

A Study of the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Rural Industrial Prosperity in China

根据2011—2020年中国31个省(市、区)的面板数据,采用熵权法客观评估各省份乡村产业兴旺发展水平并探讨其时空演变特征,利用莫兰指数(Moran’s I)研究省域之间乡村产业兴旺发展水平的空间关联性,并探讨其影响因素。结果表明,中国乡村产业兴旺发展水平呈现逐年上升趋势且具有显著的空间集聚。农业发展水平、高质量人力资本、城镇化水平均显著正向影响乡村产业兴旺发展水平。最后,根据研究结果提出注重地区均衡发展,引进高质量人才、重视农业发展和加强建设农村基础设施,加快城镇化发展建设等建议。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions in China from 2011 to 2020,the entropy method is used to objectively evaluate the prosperity and development level of rural industry in each province and to explore its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics.Moran's I index is used to study the spatial correlation of the prosperity and development level of rural industry among provinces,and its influencing factors are discussed.The level of agricultural development,high-quality human capital and urbanization all have a significant positive impact on the prosperity and development of rural industries.Finally,according to the research results,some suggestions are put forward,such as paying attention to balanced regional development,introducing high-quality talents,attaching importance to agricultural development,strengthening the construction of rural infrastructure,and speeding up the development and construction of urbanization.