长江禁渔政策间断式变迁过程蓄能探讨

Exploration of Energy Accumulation in Punctuated Change Process of Public Policy:A Case Study on the Policy Change of Fishing Ban in the Yangtze River

公共政策从均衡稳定到间断变迁过程并非一蹴而就,而是包含多阶幅度政策变化历时关联过程蓄能的完整逻辑。本文在政策变迁视角下,构建政策均衡稳定到间断变迁三阶幅度政策变化级联蓄能过程分析框架,以2002-2021年长江禁渔政策变迁为例,实证分析政策均衡稳定与(到)间断变迁过程蓄能成功实现的历时作用机制。研究发现:(1)政策均衡稳定的过程蓄能主要发生在政策工具逻辑调整的中低阶幅度能级结构,包括政策工具设计机制、工具设置及设置水平维度的级联变化;(2)最高阶幅度的政策范式变革“自上而下”打破政策均衡阶段可能诱致的“负能”结构,为政策工具逻辑跃迁而循序释放势能;(3)权衡恰当的政策工具逻辑“自下而上”加速反馈赋能政策范式的历时转移,级联形塑政策间断式变迁的过程蓄能之势。

The policy change process from equilibrium stability to punctuation couldn't be accomplished at once,which means there possibly exists a kind of completely diachronic correlation logic about amplitude of multistage energy variation accumulated within internal dynamics.From the perspective of policy change theory,this article constructs an analytical framework on 3-rd order amplitude dynamics of accumulated energy in process of policy change from equilibrium stability to punctuation.The policy change of fishing ban in the Yangtze River from 2002 to 2021 is taken as a case study to comparatively demonstrate different energy-accumulated mechanisms in the two types of policy pattern above and successful transition logic between them.The research finds:(1)policy process of equilibrium stability mainly occurs in the mid-low amplitude dynamic structure based on the design mechanism of policy instruments including its setting and parameters adjustment.(2)the"top-down"reform of policy paradigm breaks possibly induced"negative energy"structure in the stage of equilibrium stability and continuously releases political energy to prepare for the punctuated change of the logic of policy instruments.(3)the logic of appropriate policy instruments also empowers the diachronic transition process of policy paradigm through"down-top"feedback,which steadily shapes the significant amplitude dynamic of accumulated energy in the punctuated policy change.