房地产业对经济增长的贡献拐点是否已经到来?——基于服务业“成本病”的视角

Has the Turning Point of the Real Estate Industry's Contribution to Economic Growth Arrived?The Perspective of"Cost Disease"in the Service Industry

科学判断房地产业对经济增长的贡献拐点是否已经到来对于正确调整相关产业政策、促进房地产业健康平稳发展意义重大。基于服务业“成本病”视角,在柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的基础上,建立面板门槛模型,研究发现:我国房地产业对经济增长的影响具有非线性的阶段性特征,随着服务业劳动生产率的提升而呈现倒U型特征,且具有区域异质性,北京、上海、天津等地房地产业对经济增长的贡献早已迎来拐点,江苏、浙江、福建等地即将迎来拐点;资本、劳动力、技术三要素的投入对促进房地产业拉动经济增长的贡献依次增大。

The scientific judgment of whether the turning point of the contribution of the real estate industry to economic growth has arrived is of great significance for correctly adjusting relevant industrial policies and promoting the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry.Based on the perspective of"cost disease"in the service industry,a panel threshold model is established based on the Cobb-Douglas production function.The study found that the impact of China's real estate industry on economic growth has a nonlinear stage characteristic,shows an inverted U-shaped characteristic with the improvement of labor productivity in the service industry,and has regional heterogeneity.The contribution of the real estate industry to economic growth in Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,and other places has already reached a turning point.Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian,and other places are about to enter a turning point;The contribution of capital,labor,and technology to promoting the real estate industry and driving economic growth increases in sequence.