RCEP生效对国际服务贸易影响作用研究——基于增加值贸易视角

Research on the Impact of RCEP Implementation onInternational Service Trade——Based on the Perspective of Value-Added Trade

RCEP作为当前世界范围内规模最大、影响范围最广的区域自由贸易体系,在服务贸易方面做出了高水平的开放承诺,它是中国构建高标准自由贸易区网络进程中的重要抓手。以1995-2018年全球范围内66个国家服务部门的双边出口数据为样本,运用结构引力模型和泊松拟极大似然估计方法,实证研究了RCEP对服务部门增加值贸易以及福利的影响作用。反事实模拟分析结果表明,RCEP对成员国服务部门总出口和国内增加值出口均有显著的促进作用,而非成员国将在整体上受损;RCEP对一国福利的影响较小,对一国出口的影响较大;对中国而言,RCEP将大幅提高中国对日本的服务部门总出口和国内增加值出口。此外,将RCEP与CPTPP进行比较发现,RCEP对我国服务部门增加值贸易的正向影响幅度小于CPTPP。

As the world's largest and most influential free trade system,RCEP has made high-level liberalization commitments in services trade and is a key step in the process of building a high-standard free trade area network in China.This paper uses the bilateral export data of the service sectors in 66 countries from 1995 to 2018 as samples and uses a flexible estimation and simulation platform built on the standard structural gravity model to analyze the impact of RCEP on the value-added service trade and welfare.The counterfactual simulation analysis suggests that RCEP has a significant boost to the total service export and domestic value-added export of member countries,while non-member countries suffer.The welfare effect of RCEP are much lower relative to export effect.For China,RCEP will significantly increase its total service sector exports and domestic value-added exports to Japan.In addition,the comparison between RCEP and CPTPP shows that the positive effect of RCEP on China’s value-added trade of service sectors is smaller than that of CPTPP.