多时间尺度下电力消费碳排放区域动态演进及收敛性分析

Regional dynamic evolution and convergence analysis of carbon emissions from electricity consumption at multi-time scale

为了协调推进全国及各重大战略区域的减排降碳工作,加快实现碳达峰和碳中和的目标,通过碳核算技术指南法对区域电力消费碳排放量进行核算,并应用泰尔指数分析区域间的碳排放差异.在此基础上,使用三维非参数核密度估计法研究区域电力消费碳排放量的动态演变特征,并通过变异系数和空间面板模型进行σ收敛和绝对β收敛分析.研究以甘肃省为例,结果表明,甘肃省电力消费碳排放总体呈上升趋势,同时各地区之间的差异逐渐减小;在动态演进方面,随着时间推移区域内部的两极分化特征整体趋于减弱,差异化程度逐渐降低;在收敛特性方面,各时间尺度下均不存在σ收敛,但均存在绝对β收敛.

In order to coordinate and promote the emission reduction and carbon reduction work of the country and major strategic regions,and accelerate the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,the technical guide method of carbon accounting is used to calculate the carbon emissions of regional electricity consumption,and the Thiel index are used to analyze the carbon emission differences between regions.On this basis,the three-dimensional non-parametric kernel density estimation method is used to study the dynamic evolution characteristics of regional electricity consumption carbon emissions,and analyze theσconvergence and absoluteβconvergence through the coefficient of variation and the spatial panel model.Taking Gansu Province as an example,the results show that the overall trend of carbon emissions from electricity consumption is increasing,while the differences between regions are gradually decreasing.In terms of dynamic evolution,with the passage of time,the polarization characteristics within the region tend to weaken as a whole,and the degree of differentiation gradually decreases.In terms of convergence characteristics,there is noσconvergence at each time scale,but there is absoluteβconvergence.