渝东南地区烤烟气候适宜性评价

Evaluation of Climate Suitability of Flue-cured Tobacco in Southeast Chongqing

为优化烤烟生产种植布局,收集渝东南多年气象资料和烤烟生产数据,采用隶属函数法选择烤烟生长期间重要时段的温度、降水和日照作为评价指标,利用主成分分析法(PCA)确定各气候因子权重,建立烤烟适宜性综合评价模型,分析渝东南气候综合适宜度及其与烤烟产量、质量之间的关系。结果表明:(1)重庆东南烟区烤烟生长发育期综合气候适宜度在0.51~0.92之间,其中7—8月均温度适宜度最高,均值为0.93,对88.5%的地区而言温度不是限制烟草生长的气象因子;7—8月平均累计降水量较高,均值为0.80;5—8月累计日照时数适宜度次之;5月累计降水量适宜度最小,对部分地区烤烟的发育存在一定限制。(2)使用PCA法对评价指标进行权重分配,7—8月均温、5月累计降水量、7—8月平均累计降水量、5—8月累计日照时数在综合评价中的权重分别占0.09、0.11、0.42、0.38。(3)综合适宜性分析得出:气候最适宜区占该区域的1.48%,但受地形影响不适宜烤烟栽培;较适宜区占43.98%,其中最优烤烟栽培区在海拔800~1600 m的中山地带;次适宜区占54.54%,零星分布在低山地带,可发展一般烤烟。

Aiming to optimize the planting layout of flue-cured tobacco,meteorological data and flue-cured tobacco production data in southeast Chongqing were collected.Membership function method was employed to select the temperature,precipitation and sunshine during the major growing time of flue-cured tobacco as evaluation indexes,and Principal Component Analysis(PCA)was used to determine the weight of each climatic factor.Comprehensive evaluation model of flue-cured tobacco suitability was established to analyze the climate suitability of southeast Chongqing and its relationship with the yields and quality of flue-cured tobacco.Results showed as the followings.(1)The comprehensive degree of climate suitability for flue-cured tobacco growing period in southeast Chongqing was 0.51-0.92.The average temperature suitability degree from July to August exhibited the highest,with an average of 0.93.For 88.5%of the region,temperature was not a meteorological factor limiting tobacco growth.The average precipitation from July to August was high,with an average of 0.80,followed by the suitability of sunshine hours from May to August,and the precipitation suitability in May was the smallest,which limited the development of flue-cured tobacco in some areas.(2)PCA method was employed to assign the weight of evaluation index.The weights of the average temperature from July to August,the precipitation in May,the average precipitation from July to August,and the sunshine hours from May to August accounted for 0.09,0.11,0.42,and 0.38,respectively.(3)Comprehensive suitability analysis showed that the most suitable area accounted for 1.48%of the region,but was not suitable for flue-cured tobacco production due to the effect of terrain.Suitable area accounted for 43.98%,among which the optimal area for flue-cured tobacco production occurred at altitude of 800-1600 m in mountains.Sub-suitable area accounted for 54.54%,scattering in the lower mountainous area,and could plant general flue-cured tobacco.