城市化对城乡生态空间碳储量的影响机制——以北京市为例

Influencing Mechanism of Urbanization on Carbon Storage in Urban and Rural Ecological Spaces: A Case Study of Beijing

城乡生态空间的碳储功能在维护区域生态系统安全,提升人居生态环境等方面发挥着重要作用。文章以北京市为例,首先评估了2000、2010、2020年研究区的城市化水平,然后使用InVEST模型计算对应时期的碳储量,通过Moran′s I分析城市化各项指标与碳储量的空间相关性,并筛选出最优的回归模型,科学揭示城市化对城乡生态空间碳储量的影响机制。结果表明:1)2000—2020年,研究区城市化高值区域均集中在中心城区;高碳储量区域集中在远郊区及西南方向的近郊区,低碳储量区域覆盖整个中心城区并向外扩展。2)2000—2020年城市化各项指标与碳储量呈负相关关系,其中空间城市化是影响城乡生态空间碳储量的最重要因素。3)多种回归模型相比较,GWR模型表现最优。4)城市化各项指标对碳储量均保持负向驱动,影响程度存在空间异质性。据此,针对如何维持和增加城乡生态空间的碳储量提出相关建设策略,以期促进城市化与城乡生态空间碳储量的关系从对立转为协同发展。

The carbon storage function of urban and rural ecological spaces plays an important role in maintaining the regional ecosystem security and improving the ecological environment of human settlements.Taking Beijing for a case study,this paper evaluates the urbanization level of the study area in 2000,2010 and 2020,calculates the carbon stock of the corresponding periods using InVEST model,analyzes the spatial correlation between urbanization indicators and carbon storage with Moran's I,and selects the optimal regression model,to reveal the influencing mechanism of urbanization on the carbon storage of urban and rural ecological spaces.The results show that:1)From 2000 to 2020,the high value areas of urbanization in the study area are concentrated in the city core;the high carbon storage areas are concentrated in the outer suburbs and the southwest outskirts,while the low carbon storage areas cover the whole city core and extends outward;2)There is a negative correlation between urbanization indicators and carbon storage in 2000-2020,among which spatial urbanization is the most important factor affecting the carbon storage in urban and rural ecological spaces;3)The comparison of various regression models indicates that the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model outperformed the others;and 4)All indicators of urbanization have the negative driving force on carbon storage,and the degree of influence is spatially heterogeneous.In view of how to maintain and increase the carbon storage in urban and rural ecological spaces,relevant strategies are put forward in the hope of changing the relationship between urbanization and the carbon storage in urban-rural ecological spaces from polarity to coordinated development.