儿童青少年1型糖尿病患儿发生酮症酸中毒的危险因素分析及预测模型的建立

Risk factors for ketoacidosis in children/adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus and establishment of a predictive model

目的研究儿童青少年1型糖尿病(type 1 diabetes mellitus,T1DM)发生糖尿病酮症酸中毒(diabetic ketoacidosis,DKA)的危险因素,并建立DKA风险预测模型,以期降低该类患儿DKA的发生率,提高患儿生存质量。方法回顾性选择2018年1月—2021年12月宁夏医科大学总医院收治的217例T1DM患儿,其中169例发生DKA患儿为DKA组,48例未发生DKA患儿为非DKA组。分析T1DM患儿发生DKA的危险因素,并建立预测T1DM患儿发生DKA风险的列线图模型。结果217例T1DM患儿中DKA发生率为77.9%(169/217)。多因素logistic回归分析显示,T1DM患儿入院随机血糖高、糖化血红蛋白高(hemoglobin A1c,HbA1c)、血酮高、甘油三酯高与发生DKA密切相关(分别OR=1.156、3.203×10^(15)、20.131、9.519,P<0.05)。列线图预测模型C-统计量为0.95,列线图模型预测T1DM患儿发生DKA的风险与实际发生DKA的风险平均绝对误差为0.004,说明模型整体预测能力较好。结论高入院随机血糖、高HbA1c、高血酮、高甘油三酯与儿童青少年T1DM发生DKA密切相关,应制定针对性干预措施,以降低T1DM发生DKA的风险。

Objective To investigate the risk factors for diabetic ketoacidosis(DKA)in children/adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus(T1DM)and to establish a model for predicting the risk of DKA.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 217 children/adolescents with T1DM who were admitted to General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University from January 2018 to December 2021.Among the 217 children/adolescents,169 cases with DKA were included as the DKA group and 48 cases without DKA were included as the non-DKA group.The risk factors for DKA in the children/adolescents with T1DM were analyzed,and a nomogram model was established for predicting the risk of DKA in children/adolescents with T1DM.Results For the 217 children/adolescents with T1DM,the incidence rate of DKA was 77.9%(169/217).The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that high levels of random blood glucose,hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c),blood ketone body,and triglyceride on admission were closely associated with the development of DKA in the children/adolescents with T1DM(OR=1.156,3.203×1015,20.131,and 9.519 respectively;P<0.05).The nomogram prediction model had a Cstatistic of 0.95,with a mean absolute error of 0.004 between the risk of DKA predicted by the nomogram model and the actual risk of DKA,indicating that the model had a good overall prediction ability.Conclusions High levels of random blood glucose,HbA1c,blood ketone body,and triglyceride on admission are closely associated with the development of DKA in children/adolescents with T1DM,and targeted intervention measures should be developed to reduce the risk of DKA.