国际贸易规则重塑:成因、趋势与中国应对

Reshaping International Trade Rules:Causes,Trends and China's Response

当前全球经济治理进入快速变革期,国际贸易规则正加速重塑,文章尝试建立一个考虑地缘政治与经济两方面收益和成本的分析框架,并以此分析国际贸易体系变革的深层次原因,预判未来国际贸易体系的变革趋势和发展方向。国际贸易规则未来将出现WTO框架下相对低标准规则改革和核心大国主导下大型自由贸易区高标准贸易规则并存的局面。在高标准国际贸易规则领域,美西方将以规则引领、规则锁定、规则一致、规则对等等多种手段规锁中国发展。中国既应奉行多边主义,积极推进WTO改革,也应以更大决心和力度推进高标准自贸协定谈判,并尽快推出“中式版本”贸易规则,力争在未来国际贸易规则变革中掌握先机。

The current global economic governance enters a period of rapid changes and the reshaping of international trade rules accelerates.This paper attempts to construct an analytical framework that considers both geopolitical and economic benefits and costs,and adopts it to analyze the deep-seated reasons for the transformation of international trade system,so as to predict the transformation trend and development direction of international trade system.The relatively low-standard rules reform under the WTO framework and the high-standard trade rules of large free trade zones led by core powers will exist together in the future international trade rules.In the field of high-standard international trade rules,the western countries led by the United States will use various means such as rule leading,rule locking,rule consistency and rule pairs to limit China's development.China should not only adhere to multilateralism and actively promote WTO reform,but also advance the negotiations on high-standard free trade agreements with greater determination and strength and launch trade rules of"the Chinese version"as soon as possible,striving to seize the opportunity in the future transformation of international trade rules.