城镇密集地区高密度都市区人口演变规律探索及启示

Exploration and Enlightenment on the Population Evolution Law of High Density Metropolitan Area in Urban Dense Area

【目的】以社会文化同源、空间结构类似、发展逻辑趋同的亚太都市区为例,归纳其人口演变特征。【方法】以东京都市区、首尔都市区为研究对象,剖析高密度都市区人口演变基本规律,对照分析成都都市区演变历程与现状特点,研判其发展趋势。【结论】基于类比模型,提出成都都市区人口规模宜控制在3000万人左右。我国超大城市空间拓展逐渐进入都市区发展阶段,但对都市区人口演变规律却缺少深入研究,人口政策上存在较大的学术争议。【结果】针对上述问题,提出加强近郊新城建设用地供给、增加老城区住房供给等建议。

[Purposes]This paper takes the first-mover Asia-Pacific metropolitan areaswith social and cultural homology,similar spatial structure and convergence of development logic as the case objects,the characteristics of population evolution are summarized.[Methods]Taking the Tokyo Metropolitan Area and the Seoul Metropolitan Area as the research objects,the basic law of population evolution in highdensity urban areas is analyzed,so as to compare and analyze the evolution process and current charac⁃teristics of the Chengdu Metropolitan Area,and judge its development trend.[Findings]Based on the analogy model,it is proposed that the population size of Chengdu metropolitan area should be controlled at about 30 million people.The spatial expansion of my country's mega cities has gradually entered the stage of urban area development,but there is a lack of in-depth research on the law of population evolu⁃tion in urban areas,and there are academic disputes on population policies.[Conclusions]Aiming at the above problems,some suggestions are put forward,such as strengthening the construction land supply of suburban new towns and increasing the housing supply of old towns.