基于动态碳排放因子的分布式能源系统碳管理模型

Carbon Management Model of Distributed Energy System Based on Dynamic Carbon Emission Factors

分布式能源系统具有清洁、低碳、能量利用高效等多种优势,是缓解能源危机和温室效应的有效手段,然而大部分可再生能源具有波动性、间歇性等特性,也为其碳排放精细核算带来了挑战。为提高现有碳核算方法的时空精细度和促进碳排放的系统管理,开展“碳视角”的研究。首先考虑可再生能源波动性对发电机组碳排放强度的影响,设计了表征发电机组不同时隙碳排放强度的动态碳排放因子;其次将动态碳排放因子嵌入到优化模型中,构建了分布式能源系统两阶段实时优化模型;最后提出含碳预测、碳优化与核算、碳交易的三阶段碳管理模型。结果表明:机组负荷强度波动性越大,使用动态碳排放因子核算相较于静态碳排放因子的准确性越高;运行调度中两阶段实时优化算法可使碳排放量显著下降;通过三阶段碳管理模型可使经济成本和环境成本显著降低,有助于微观层面的碳排放精细管理,实现自下而上的碳管理。

Distributed energy systems offer various advantages,including clean,low-carbon and efficient energy utilization,making them effective in mitigating energy crises and greenhouse gas effects.However,the fluctuating and intermittent nature of most renewable energy sources poses challenges for precise carbon accounting.In order to enhance the spatiotemporal accuracy of existing carbon accounting methods and facilitate systematic carbon emission management,the“carbon perspective”approach is adopted.Initially,The impact of renewable energy variability on the carbon emission intensity of power generators,introducing dynamic carbon emission factors to characterize varying emission intensities across different time intervals.Subsequently,these dynamic factors are integrated into an optimization model,forming a two-stage real-time optimization model for distributed energy systems.Finally,a three-stage carbon management model encompassing carbon forecasting,optimization and accounting,and carbon trading is proposed.Results indicate that higher variability in unit load intensity corresponds to increased accuracy when using dynamic carbon emission factors compared to static ones.The two-stage real-time optimization algorithm during operational scheduling significantly reduces carbon emissions.Implementation of the three-stage carbon management model leads to a substantial decrease in economic and environmental costs,facilitating fine-grained carbon emission management at the micro level and achieving a bottom-up approach to carbon management.