基于智能网格预报的江西暴雨灾害风险预评估研究

Research on Risk Pre-assessment of Rainstorm Disaster Based on Intelligent Grid Forecasting in Jiangxi Province

利用1951—2022年江西降水实况、逐日智能网格降水预报产品、暴雨灾情损失,地形DEM、河网密度及GDP、人口等数据,分析了江西暴雨灾害风险的主要影响因素,从暴雨灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性和承灾体易损性三方面,构建了江西暴雨灾害风险评估模型。利用模型对2010—2020年135次暴雨过程灾害风险进行评估检验,结果显示该模型较为合理;对2019年6月6—11日江西暴雨过程进行灾害风险评估,结果显示该过程中吉安北部至赣州东北部、上饶东部为重度到极重度受灾区;再对2022年6月12—15日江西暴雨过程进行灾害风险逐日预评估;两者结果均与灾情实况分布大体一致,总体效果较好。

Based on the precipitation data,daily intelligent grid precipitation forecasting products,rainstorm disaster losses,terrain DEM,river network density,GDP,population and other data in Jiangxi Province from 1951 to 2022,the main influencing factors of rainstorm disaster risk in Jiangxi are analyzed.The risk assessment model of rainstorm disaster in Jiangxi Province is constructed from three aspects:the risk of disaster causing factors of rainstorm disaster,sensitivity of pregnancy disaster environment and the vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies.The risk of disaster of 135 regional rainstorm processes from 2010 to 2020 are assessed and tested by the model,which show that the output results of the model are generally feasible.The model is used to assess the disaster risk of the rainstorm process from June 6 to 11,2019 in Jiangxi.The results show that severe disaster area occurred in the northern part of Ji′an,northeast of Ganzhou and the eastern part of Shangrao.The disaster risk of the rainstorm process in Jiangxi from June 12 to 15,2022 is pre-assessed day by day,and the overall effect is good.Both results are generally consistent with the actual distribution of disasters.