超临界煤电供热机组经营成本决策系统研发

Research and Development of Operating Cost Decision System for Supercritical Coal-fired Heating Unit

随着越来越多的亚临界、超临界、超超临界纯凝机组改供热,发电企业如何分配发电负荷与供热负荷,如何实时计算供热煤电的发电、供热、调峰边界成本,已成为重要的研究课题。以某电厂2台600MW超临界工业供热抽凝机组为研究对象,预测机组发电煤耗和供热煤耗,针对不同煤价、电价、汽价、电网辅助交易价格等市场外部环境,计算出机组盈利边界成本,给出不同边界条件下的生产策略。在企业经营成本辨识与预测、生产决策分析的基础上,研发供热煤电机组生产经营成本决策系统,可自动计算发电、供热、调峰边界成本,整合各底层系统生产成本维度数据,形成公司级大数据库,通过正平衡法和回归分析法对各管理数据、生产数据进行深层次分析,并通过以往大量数据进行专业化分析,使系统具有更强的决策力,进而预测企业在不同生产条件下应做出的最优决策。

As more and more subcritical,supercritical and ultra-supercritical pure condensing units are transformed into heating units,the distribution of generation load and heating load and the real-time calculation of boundary costs for power generation,heating and peak regulation of coal-fired heating have become an important research topic for power plants.Taking the two 600MW supercritical condensing heating units of a power plant as the research objects,the coal consumption for power generation and coal consumption for heating of the units are predicted,the profit boundary cost of the units is calculated according to external market environment such as different coal prices,electricity prices,steam prices and grid auxiliary transaction prices,and production strategies are given for different boundary conditions.Based on the identification and prediction of operating costs and the production decision analysis of enterprises,an operating cost decision system is developed for coal-fired heating units,which can automatically calculate the boundary costs for power generation,heating and peak regulation and integrate the production cost dimension data of each bottom system to form a large company-level database.The in-depth analysis of management data and production data using positive balance method and regression analysis method and the professional analysis of a large number of previous data enable the system to have a stronger decision-making power,thereby predicting the optimal decisions that enterprises should make under different production conditions.