盟国参与美国经济制裁的动因分析(1992~2022)

Why does the Allies Follow the U.S.in Using Economic Sanctions?An Analysis of Drivers,1992-2022

乌克兰危机爆发以来,在美国的主导下,西方社会对俄罗斯发起了大规模、精准化、长期化的经济制裁,给俄罗斯造成了重大损失,也使得美国盟国参与美国主导的经济制裁这一现象备受关注。对于美国来说,联盟体系是其霸权的重要支撑,盟国是否参与其主导的经济制裁对于制裁效果而言至关重要,但盟国的参与情况却大相径庭。为何会出现这一现象?既有研究从“国家实力说”“联盟政治说”“国内政治说”“经济依赖说”和“制裁偏好说”五个视角进行了有益探讨。文章认为,在国家层面,盟国国家实力及其经济制裁偏好对其是否参与美国主导的经济制裁具有重要影响;在联盟层面,盟国与美国对外政策相似度、盟国对美国的军事依赖程度、联盟成员数量、盟国与美国的政体差异以及盟国对美国的经济依赖程度也是不可忽略的因素。文章据此提出七条假设,并运用模糊集定性比较分析方法(fsQCA)进行检验。当前,对外经济制裁已成为美国的重要战略手段。为了增强经济制裁的有效性,美国会更加需要盟国的支持,对其盟国参与经济制裁的动因进行分析就显得尤为重要,也可为应对中美战略博弈加剧未雨绸缪。

The American system of alliances is crucial for maintaining American hegemony,and in this regard participation of allies in American led sanctions regimes is critical in ensuring the effectiveness of sanctions.While so,the participation of American allies in these sanctions varies significantly.Why is this the case?This article argues that the national power of allied states and the preferences of states with respect to the use of economic sanctions significantly impact a state's decision to participate in U.S.led sanctions.Meanwhile,at the alliance level,the following factors are essential:the level of similarity between the foreign policy of the U.S.and an ally;the extent to which a U.S.ally is militarily dependent on the U.S.;the number of members in the alliance;political differences between the U.S.and an allied state;and the level of economic dependence of an ally on the U.S.On the basis of these considerations,the article lays out seven hypotheses,which it tests using fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA).Economic sanctions are increasingly seen as a key strategic tool by the United States.To enhance the effectiveness of these sanctions,the U.S.will need greater support from its allies.