基于二元结构的中国增长核算——引入劳动就业率的理论和经验分析

China's Dual Structure-Based Growth Accounting——Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Introducing the Labor Employment Rate

二元结构对经济增长的作用,往往由于使用新古典增长模型而被弱化,从而产生了理论强实证弱的缺陷。将劳动就业率作为二元阶段的抽象属性,构建增长核算方程,使之能够对处于不同发展阶段的经济体之间、同一个经济体的不同发展阶段之间进行统一的增长核算,通过国际数据进行检验得到了逻辑与经验相一致的结果。在此基础上,测算未来提高劳动就业率对经济增长的贡献潜力,结果显示,中长期来看,消除二元结构仍然是中国经济增长的重要来源。

The role of the dual structure in economic growth is often weakened by the use of neoclassical growth models,resulting in the defect of strong theoretical but weak empirical evidence.We take the labor employment rate as an abstract attribute of the dual stage and construct a growth accounting equation that can conduct unified growth accounting between economies at different stages of development and between different stages of development of the same economy.On this basis,we measured the potential contribution to future economic growth of increasing the labor employment rate.The results show that the elimination of the dual structure will continue to be an important source of China's medium and long term economic growth.