中国绿色税制改革的经济效应与碳减排效应

ON THE ECONOMIC AND CARBON REDUCTION EFFECTS OF CHINA'S GREEN TAX SYSTEM REFORM

基于2018年投入产出表编制的社会核算矩阵,本文建立了动态可计算一般均衡(DCGE)模型,对环境保护税和资源税税负水平提高、车辆购置税税负水平降低的政策趋势进行模拟。研究发现:(1)在设定的模拟范围内,最优税收政策为“环境保护税税负水平提高25%以内,资源税税负水平提高50%~75%,车辆购置税税负水平降低50%以上”;(2)环境保护税与资源税组合政策实施时,环境保护税税负水平的提高会导致政策的综合表现变差,而资源税则相反;(3)模拟结果表明,环境保护税和资源税改革对电力等重排放行业的碳减排有着积极作用;(4)车辆购置税优惠政策的实施和第二产业地方性收费负担的减轻能够调和改革中经济增长与碳排放的两难困境。

Based on the social accounting matrix compiled from the input-output table in 2018,this paper establishes a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium(DCGE)model to simulate the policy trend of increasing the tax burden of environmental protection tax and resource tax and reducing the tax burden of vehicle purchase tax.The results of this paper are summarized as follows.(1)The optimal policy within the set simulation range is that environmental protection tax burden increases within 25%,resource tax burden increases by 50%~75%,and vehicle purchase tax burden level decreases by more than 50%.(2)When the combined policy of environmental protection tax and resource tax is implemented,the increase in the tax burden of environmental protection tax would lead to the deterioration of the overall performance of the policy,while the increase in resource tax will have the opposite result.(3)Both static and dynamic simulation results show that environmental protection tax and resource tax have a positive effect on the carbon emission reduction of heavy-emitting industries such as electricity.(4)Through the preferential policy of vehicle purchase tax and the reduction of the burden of local charges on the secondary industry,the dilemma of economic growth and carbon emissions might be overcome.