基于熵权法的中国进口原油供应链弹性评价及提升策略

Resilience Evaluation and Improvement Strategy of China's Imported Crude Oil Supply Chain based on Entropy Weight Method

原油供应链弹性是衡量国家能源安全和供应链抗风险能力的定量指标之一。本文构建了包含多元化进口能力、交通运输能力、港口接收能力、库存储备能力、可开采能力以及应急调控能力,六个维度的进口原油供应链弹性评价体系,通过熵权法得到了2000~2022年我国进口原油供应链弹性水平。研究发现,第一,我国原油供应链弹性呈现上升趋势,2008年成为重要拐点,趋势变化源于原油供需格局的结构性转变。第二,弹性提高的动力来自交通运输、港口接收和库存储备能力的持续提升,多元化进口能力、可开采能力以及应急调控能力在推动弹性提升方面表现一般。第三,供应链上游风险仍未得到很好分散,多元化进口能力有待提升。

Crude oil supply chain resilience serves as a quantitative indicator for evaluating national energy security and the anti-risk capabilities of the supply chain.This paper establishes an evaluation system for the resilience of imported crude oil supply chain,which includes six dimensions:diversified import capacity,transportation capacity,port receiving capacity,inventory reserve capacity,exploitable capacity and emergency regulation capacity.In this paper,the entropy weight method is used to obtain the resilience level of China's imported crude oil supply chain from 2000 to 2022.The study found that,first,the resilience of China's crude oil supply chain shows an upward trend and the year 2008 marked an important turning point due to the structural shifts in the pattern of oil supply and demand.Second,the driving force for improvement of resilience comes from the continuous improvement of transportation,port reception and inventory reserve capacity.Diversified import capacity,exploitable capacity and emergency regulation capacity shows average performance in promoting the improvement of elasticity.Third,the upstream risks of the supply chain are still not well dispersed,and diversified import capacity needs to be improved.