绿色金融视角下中国省域碳排放的时空演变及减排研究

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Reduction of Provincial Carbon Emissions from the Perspective of Green Finance

在对2008—2019年中国省域碳排放与绿色金融的时空演化、重心迁移与离散趋势深入考察的基础上,运用静态与动态空间杜宾模型对绿色金融影响碳排放的空间效应、作用机制及异质性展开探讨。研究发现:中国碳排放已进入缓慢增长阶段,东部与东北碳排放占比下降,中西部碳排放对东部呈“追赶”态势,热点排放区向西北转移。绿色金融水平稳步提升,水平较高省份集中在东部沿海,依次为中西部;高水平区逐渐收敛,呈南北方向为主导的空间分布。碳排放存在空间关连与路径依赖,绿色金融的减碳效果具有属地与溢出效应,物理矩阵下的跨区域协同减排效应更强。经济发展对绿色金融的减碳效果具有正向调节效应,发达地区绿色金融的减排效果更强。机制分析表明,绿色金融可通过促进产业高级化抑制碳排放,但抑制效果存在区域差异。

Based on an in-depth analysis of the spatial-temporal evolution,migration,and dispersion trends of carbon emis-sions(CE)and green finance(GF)in China's provinces from 2008 to 2019,a static and dynamic SDM is used to explore the spatial effects,mechanisms,and heterogeneity of GF on CE.Results show that CE has entered a slow growth stage.The central and western regions are catching up with the eastern regions,with hotspot emission areas gradually shifting to the northwest.The level of CF is slowly rising,with the higher-level provinces concentrated on the eastern coast,followed by the central and western regions;the high-level GF areas are gradually converging,with a spatial distribution dominated by the north-south direction.There are spatial correlations and path dependence of CE,and the carbon reduction effect of GF has a territorial effect and spillover effect.The cross-regional synergistic emission reduction effect is stronger under the phys-ical matrix.Economic development has a positive adjustment effect on GF's carbon reduction effect,and GF's emission re-duction effect is stronger in developed regions.The mechanism analysis shows that GF can suppress CE by promoting ad-vanced industrialization,but regional differences exist in the suppression effect.