“双碳”目标下中国区域数字贸易的碳减排效应研究

Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of China's Regional Digital Trade Under the Dual Carbon Target

将社会再生产过程中的“生产端”和“消费端”纳入数字贸易与碳排放分析框架,讨论数字贸易对碳减排的影响机制,基于2011—2020年中国30个省级样本数据,采用动态空间计量模型、系统GMM估计方法进行实证检验。结果表明:数字贸易具有明显的碳减排效应,该效应在地区之间呈现出北方强于南方、中西部强于东部的异质性特征;生产端的中介效应检验发现,数字贸易通过产出规模效应会削弱碳减排效应,而通过结构效应及技术效应增强碳减排效应;在消费端方面,农村居民消费结构升级的中介效应表现为碳减排增强效应,城市居民消费结构升级的中介效应表现为碳减排削弱效应。

Digital trade is a result of integrating digital technology and trade,and an important form of digital economy.The carbon emission reduction effect of digital trade is an important support for realizing the"carbon peak,carbon neutrality"goal and high-quality economic development.This paper constructs an analytical framework for digital trade and carbon e-mission,including both the"production end"and"consumption end"in the social reproduction process,and discusses the impact mechanism of digital trade on carbon emission reduction based on 30 provincial-level data in China from 2011 to 2020 using the dynamic spatial econometric model and the systematic GMM estimation method.The results show that digital trade has a noticeable carbon emission reduction effect,stronger in the north than in the south and the middle and west than in the east.The intermediate effect test at the production end shows that digital trade weakens the carbon emission reduction effect through the output scale effect but enhances the carbon emission reduction effect through the structure effect and tech-nology effect.On the consumption side,the intermediary effect of rural residents'consumption structure upgrading is mani-fested as an enhanced effect of carbon emission reduction,while the intermediary effect of urban residents'consumption structure upgrading is manifested as a weakened effect of carbon emission reduction.