数字经济对居民消费的门限效应研究

Threshold Effect of Digital Economy on Resident Consumption

基于2014、2016和2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,以家庭人均收入和家庭人均净资产作为门限变量,利用面板门限模型分析数字经济发展对居民消费的非线性影响。研究表明:以家庭人均收入为门限变量,数字经济发展水平对居民消费具有双重门限效应,随着收入区间的右移,数字经济对消费的推动力度呈现出先降低再上升的特点。利用家庭人均净资产为门限变量,数字经济对消费的影响强度随着取值区间的右移而逐步增大,呈现出边际递增的非线性特征。数字经济的发展对生存型消费的作用力度随着收入区间的右移而削弱,对发展型消费的影响跨越收入门限值后在加强。针对实证结果,提出加强网络基础设施建设、加大数字信息技术的开发与应用、提高消费者的数字素养、促进数字经济包容式发展等政策建议。

Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2014,2016 and 2018 and with household per capita income and household per capita net assets as threshold variables,this study analyzes the nonlinear impact of digital economy development on resident consumption by using the panel threshold model.The research findings show that with household per capita income as the threshold variable,the level of digital economy development has a dual threshold effect on resident consumption,and as the income range shifts to the right,the promoting intensity of digital economy on consumption presents the feature of decreasing before increasing again.With household per capita net assets as the threshold variable,the impact intensity of digital economy on consumption gradually increases with the value range shifting to the right,presenting a nonlinear feature of marginal increase.The effect intensity of digital economy development on survival-type consumption weakens with the income range shifting to the right while its impact on development-type consumption strengthens after crossing the income threshold.Based on the empirical results,such policy recommendations are proposed as strengthening the construction of network infrastructure,increasing the development and application of digital information technology,improving consumers’digital accomplishment and promoting inclusive development of digital economy.