人口和人才的双重红利:高校新建校区对区县人力资本的影响

Dual Dividends of Population and Talent:The Impact of University New Campus Construction on County Human Capital

经济高质量发展离不开高质量的人力资本。基于2000年、2010年和2020年人口普查分县数据,利用我国大学扩招以来新建校区这一准实验,使用双向固定效应模型,从人口规模、人口质量和产业人口结构三方面研究大学新建校区对区县人力资本的影响。研究发现,启用新建校区能够使区县人口规模增加7.0%,迁入人口增加10.2%;人口平均受教育年限增加0.11年,高技能人口比例增加1.83%;第二产业人口比例减少,第三产业人口比例和专业技术人员比例增加。拓展性分析发现区县新建校区对邻近区县存在溢出效应。因此,大学新建校区促进了区县人口集聚,提升了人口素质,推动了就业人员向第三产业转移升级。

High-quality economic development relies on high-quality human capital.Based on county-level census data from 2000,2010,and 2020,this paper utilizes the quasi-experiment of university enrollment expansion in China to investigate the impact of university new campus construction on regional human capital using a two-way fixed-effects model from three aspects:population size,population quality,and industrial population structure.The study finds that each newly established university campus increased the population size of a county by 7.0%and attracted an influx of population by 10.2%.The average years of education in the county increased by 0.11 years,and the proportion of highly skilled population increased by 1.83%.It also reduced the proportion of the secondary industry population while increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry population and the proportion of professional and technical personnel.Furthermore,it is found that county-level new campuses have spillover effects on neighboring counties.Therefore,university new campus construction promotes population aggregation in counties,enhances population quality,and drives the transition and upgrading of employment towards the tertiary industry.