人工智能对微观企业的就业影响:总量、来源与异质性研究

The Impact of AI on Employment in Enterprises:A Study on Aggregate,Source and Heterogeneity

现有关于人工智能对我国微观企业就业影响的研究主要采用行业数据,侧重分析人工智能对行业层面就业总量的影响,忽视了微观企业使用机器人将会产生显著的行业影响,没有深入分析机器人使用对行业内部不同企业的影响,更没有进一步直接对微观企业的就业变动、就业创造和就业消失进行全面和深入的分析。通过将国际机器人联合会提供的工业机器人数据和中国工业企业数据进行匹配,可实证分析机器人对中国微观企业在总量上、异质性上以及增量上的就业效应。研究发现:总量上,机器人显著降低了企业雇佣劳动力的数量,机器人投入每增加1%,企业的劳动力需求会下降1.41%。异质性上,机器人对非国有企业的冲击效应更大;对资本密集型、技术密集型和劳动密集型的影响逐渐减弱。增量上,机器人既能够创造就业也能够消灭就业,但显著表现为就业消失效应,并且这种就业消失效应主要出现在退出企业而非存续企业。此结论对于我国技术进步方向和方式、经济增长驱动力量以及就业保障实施等方面有着重要的理论价值和实践指导意义。

The existing research on the impact of artificial intelligence on the employment of micro enterprises in China mainly uses industry data,focusing on analyzing the impact of artificial intelligence on the total employment at the industry level,neglecting the significant industry impact that micro enterprises will have when using robots.There is no in-depth analysis of the impact of robot use on different enterprises within the industry,and there is no further direct comprehensive analysis of job creation and job destruction in micro-enterprises.By matching the industrial robot data provided by the International Federation of Robotics with the data of Chinese industrial enterprises,we can empirically analyze the employment effects of robots on Chinese micro enterprises in terms of total quantity,heterogeneity,and increment.Research has found that in terms of total quantity,robots significantly reduce the number of labor employed by enterprises.For every 1%increase in robot investment,the labor demand of enterprises will decrease by 1.41%.In terms of heterogeneity,robots have a greater impact on non-state-owned enterprises;the impact on capital intensive,technology intensive,and labor intensive industries is gradually weakening.In terms of increment,robots can both create and destruct jobs,but the significant effect is the job destruction,which mainly occurs in exiting enterprises rather than surviving enterprises.This conclusion has important theoretical value and practical guidance significance for the direction and mode of technological progress,the driving force of economic growth,and the implementation of employment security in China.