不利冲击下中国经济为何具有强劲韧性?——基于制度适应性效率的经验研究

Why does China's Economy Remain Resilient under Adverse Shocks?An Empirical Study Based on the Efficiency of Institutional Adaptability

文章在“不利冲击—集中型制度适应性效率—经济韧性”的框架下分析中国经济遭遇不利冲击时保持强劲韧性的制度根源。当经济遭遇不利冲击时,政府凸显“集中力量办大事”的制度优势并充分发挥公有制经济作用,将有限资源进行再配置,支持和扶持受冲击地区或者城市,对冲不利冲击的负面影响,使得经济快速恢复增长,从而保持经济韧性。文章采用地震这一不利冲击,运用CRITIC-熵权TOPSIS模型测算出1997—2020年经济韧性和集中型制度适应性效率,检验集中型制度适应性效率的对冲效应。实证分析发现:(1)地震对经济韧性的负面冲击为5.830个百分点,集中型制度适应性效率的对冲效应为6.452个百分点;(2)集中型制度适应性效率的对冲效应存在地区差异,南方集中型制度适应性效率的对冲效应为12.423个百分点,北方集中型制度适应性效率的对冲效应为5.500个百分点;(3)政府部门适应性效率的对冲效应为2.381个百分点,银行部门适应性效率的对冲效应为3.746个百分点,企业部门适应性效率的对冲效应为2.218个百分点;(4)南方地区三个部门的对冲效应均高于北方地区,而且南北地区银行部门的对冲效应均最高,其次是政府部门的对冲效应,企业部门的对冲效应最低。上述发现是稳健的,从而揭示了制度适应性效率对中国经济保持强劲韧性的关键作用。因此,改革开放以来中国基础性制度建设和基本经济制度的不断完善是经济韧性形成的重要原因。

Since the reform and opening up,China's economic development has continuously suffered external shocks,and natural disasters have also occurred frequently.Shocks,large or small,internal or external,will have some impact on China's economy,but after each shock China's economy will quickly get back on track or even not deviate from its original development trajectory,and recover from the risks before other countries.What is the root cause of China's economy maintaining high and steady growth?Why does China's economy remain so resilient?This paper argues that China's economic resilience is determined by the efficiency of institutional adaptability with Chinese characteristics-the efficiency of centralized institutional adaptability.This paper analyzes the institutional root of China's strong resilience when it suffers adverse shocks under the framework of"adverse shocks-efficiency of centralized institutional adaptability-economic resilience".The study finds that:(1)The negative impact of earthquake on economic resilience is 5.830 percentage points,and the hedging effect of the efficiency of centralized institutional adaptability is 6.452 percentage points.(2)The hedging effect of the efficiency of centralized institutional adaptability in the south is 12.423 percentage points,while that in the north is 5.500 percentage points.(3)The hedging effect of the efficiency of government department adaptability is 2.381 percentage points,that of banking sector adaptability is 3.746 percentage points,and that of enterprise sector adaptability is 2.218 percentage points.(4)The hedging effect of the three sectors in the southern region is higher than that in the northern region,and the hedging effect of the banking sector in the north and south is the highest,followed by the government department,and the enterprise sector is the lowest.The main contributions of this paper are as follows:First,on the basis of the efficiency of North's institutional adaptability,the efficiency of centralized institutional adaptability is proposed and measured.Second,according to the economic resilience theory and the measurement theory,combined with the objective background of the new development pattern,a multi-dimensional and multi-level evaluation of China's economic resilience is carried out to form a statistical measure of economic resilience with Chinese characteristics.Third,the efficiency of centralized institutional adaptability is incorporated into the Chinese economic resilience model,the root cause of China's strong economic resilience is revealed from the institutional perspective,and an analytical framework for adverse shocks,centralized institutional adaptability efficiency and economic resilienceis proposed.