县域高中学生顶尖大学录取机会对人口流动的影响

The Impact of Elite University Entrance Opportunities for County-Level Senior High School Students on Population Mobility

县级城市在我国发挥着连接城市、服务乡村、促进城乡融合的重要作用。近年来,人口流失问题已经成为阻碍县域经济社会发展的重要因素。随着高等学校招生规模的不断扩大,在顶尖大学接受教育已经成为许多学子的追求,并潜移默化地影响着学生家长对家庭居住地的选择。从远距离迁移行为和居留意愿两个角度,可以探寻县域高中学生顶尖大学录取机会对人口流动的影响,并探究县域教育对县域人口流动的影响效应和群体间异质性。实证研究发现,县域高中顶尖大学录取机会的提升有助于提高该地对于流动人口的吸引力,如果某县近三年高考至少有两年存在考入顶尖大学的学生,则流动人口远距离迁入该县和定居的可能性将分别增加49.6%和15.8%。对此,县级政府应该更加认识到加强县域高中建设的重要性,多措并举提高县域高中质量;高等学校在分配各类高考专项计划名额的过程中需要重点关注县域高中,以促进县域教育高质量发展,助力实现以人为核心的新型城镇化战略目标。

County-level cities play an important role in connecting cities,serving rural areas,and promoting urban-rural integration in China.In recent years,population loss has become a significant factor hindering the economic and social development of counties.With the continuous expansion of higher education enrollment,access to education in top universities is pursued by many senior high school students,and it subtly affects their parents'choice of household residence.From the perspectives of long-distance migration and the intention of residence,this study explores the impact of elite university entrance opportunities for county-level senior high school students on population mobility,the impact of county-level education on county-level population mobility,and the difference between different groups.An empirical study shows the following:The increase in elite university entrance opportunities for county-level senior high school students can enhance a county's attraction for migrating population;if there are senior high school students admitted to elite universities in at least two of the past three years,migrants moving into the county from a long distance and settling down there are likely to increase by 49.6%and 15.8%,respectively.Therefore,the county-level government needs to further understand the importance of strengthening the construction of county-level senior high schools,and take various measures to improve the quality of county-level senior high schools.During the quota allocation for the special programs for university enrollment,universities need to focus on county-level senior high schools so as to promote the high-quality development of county-level education and achieve the people-centered strategic goal of new urbanization.