人口规模缩减和结构老化下中国市场能力提升研究——基于人口规模回旋空间理论辨析

Research on China’s Market Capacity under Shrinking Population Size and Structural Ageing-Based onthe theory of Population Cushion

为实现中国式现代化和第二个百年奋斗目标,未来30年仍需要经济高质量的增长和发展。在人口负增长和年龄结构老化的条件下,劳动供给减少和资本要素边际收益趋微是必然,技术进步、劳动生产率提升和需求拉动力增强则成为未来经济增长的主动力,而技术进步和劳动生产率提高离不开市场能力提升的支撑。为此,本文力图在对市场能力的内涵认知和界定的基础上,阐述了未来我国市场能力面临来自人口负增长、老龄化带来的可能冲击和挑战;阐明在人口负增长和老龄化下,可充分利用人口规模巨大的回旋空间增强供给侧产出能力、需求侧消费能力和循环畅通能力,进而从社会治理、市场治理视角出发,提出充分激发人口回旋效应以提升市场能力的策略、途径和措施。

Promoting national renaissance with Chinese-style modernization and achieving the second centennial goals require high-quality economic growth and development.The classical theory of economic growth proves that technological progress,essential factor growth,and demand-pull are the power sources of economic growth.Under the conditions of negative population growth and aging age structure,the reduction of labour supply and marginal revenue of capital factors are inevitable.Technological progress,labour productivity improvement,and demand-pulling power enhancement will become the main driving force of future economic growth Technological progress and labour productivity improvement cannot be separated from the support of the enhancement of market capacity.Therefore,on the basis of recognizing and defining of market capacity,this paper describes how China’s market capacity will face the possible impacts and challenges brought by negative population growth and aging in the future.This paper suggests that under the condition of negative population growth and aging,the cushion space effect of large population scale can be fully utilized to enhance the supply-side output capacity,demand-side consumption capacity,and circulation capacity.And,finally,from the perspective of social governance and market governance,this paper describes the strategies,ways,and measures that could fully stimulate the population cushion effect to enhance the nation’s market abilities.