国际贸易新形势下中国农产品出口中亚五国贸易效率及潜力研究

A Study on the Trade Efficiency and Potential of Chinese Agricultural Products Exported to the Five Central Asian Countries under the New Situation of International Trade

面对当今全球经济形势动荡、政治环境复杂、文化冲突不断的国际新形势,文章对2001-2020年中国与中亚五国农产品贸易进行总结。使用时变随机前沿引力模型,探究影响中国农产品出口中亚国家的主要影响因素,进一步测算了中国农产品出口中亚国家的贸易效率和贸易潜力,对经济规模、政治环境、人口因素、地理位置等变量进行实证分析。研究结果表明,经济规模、政治环境、人口规模等因素能够正向促进中国对中亚国家的农产品出口。此外,中亚国家农业产值占本国GDP比值与贸易效率呈现负相关关系,而法律法规完善程度和WTO等贸易非效率项显著提高中国的农产品出口贸易效率。根据研究结论,文章提出如下建议:积极参与国际治理;开展友好磋商;坚定文化自信和促进文化交流;发展跨境电商等外贸新业态。

In the face of the turbulent global economic situation,complex political environment,and continuous cultural conflicts,this article summarizes the agricultural product trade between China and the five Central Asian countries from 2001 to 2020.Using a timevarying stochastic frontier gravity model,the main influencing factors on China's agricultural exports to Central Asian countries were explored,and the trade efficiency and potential of China's agricultural exports to Central Asian countries were further measured.Empirical analysis was conducted on variables such as economic scale,political environment,population factors,and geographical location.The research results indicate that factors such as economic scale,political environment,and population size can positively promote China's agricultural exports to Central Asian countries.In addition,there is a negative correlation between the ratio of agricultural output value to GDP in Central Asian countries and trade efficiency,while the improvement of laws and regulations and trade inefficiencies such as WTO significantly improve China's agricultural product export trade efficiency.Based on the research findings,the article proposes the following suggestions:actively participate in international governance;Conduct friendly consultations;Strengthening cultural confidence and promoting cultural exchange;Develop new forms of foreign trade such as cross-border e-commerce.