炼化企业施工作业事故可能性评价方法研究

Research on Evaluation Method of Construction Operation Safety Accident Possibility in Refining and Chemical Enterprises

为充分考虑作业环境和作业人员因素对炼化企业施工作业事故可能性的影响,构建炼化企业施工作业事故可能性评价方法,提出以Bow-tie模型的风险识别结构为基础,结合保护层分析的定量分析方法,确定Bow-tie模型中各事件的发生概率;用第二代人因可靠性方法CREAM模型,明确人因失误机理和模式,对人因失误事件的失效概率进行修正。通过在某炼化企业实例验证,结果表明,该方法能够实现在充分考虑环境因素和人因失误因素前提下对事故可能性的定量评价。可满足炼化企业复杂场景下对作业风险量化评估的需求。

In order to fully consider the influence of working environment and personnel factors on the possibility of construction accidents in refining and chemical enterprises,an evaluation method for the possibility of construction accidents in refining and chemical enterprises was constructed.Based on the risk identification structure of Bow-tie model and the quantitative analysis method of protective layer analysis,the occurrence probability of each event in the Bow-tie model was determined.Using the CREAM model of the second generation of human factor reliability method,the mechanism and model of human factor failure were clarified,and the failure probability of human factor failure events was corrected.The results showed that this method can realize the quantitative evaluation of accident possibility under the premise of fully considering environmental factors and human error factors.It can meet the needs of quantitative assessment of operational risk in complex scenarios of refining and chemical enterprises.