“双碳”目标下国土空间优化的挑战与应对

Challenges and Countermeasures of the Optimization of Territorial Space under the Dual Carbon Goals

国土空间优化与调控始终是现代化建设面临的重大理论和实践问题。现有的国土空间规划研究多聚焦于对低碳空间治理思路、框架、工具的整体性把握,尚缺乏明确的碳约束目标及行动指南,亟待将“双碳”目标全面融入国土空间规划的目标体系、决策体系和保障体系,发挥规划在空间治理上的统筹引领作用。首先,国土空间优化光论“地”不谈“天”不行,也不能“就土论土、就地论地”;其次,低碳和“双碳”目标并不完全等同,要避免“双碳”研究中忽视国土,也要在研究国土问题中厘清“双碳”;再次,空间优化是个复杂动态过程,需要高度重视深度不确定性。因此,未来有必要建立国土空间抗解性识别分析范式和方法,开发应对深度不确定性的国土空间协同演化集成模型,构建国土空间多目标优化调控理论体系,并沿着科学认知、信息技术、智能规划、创新制度四个主轴展开深入研究和理论构建。

The optimization and regulation of territorial space is always a major theoretical and practical problem facing the construction of modernization.Most of the existing researches on territorial spatial planning focus on the ideas,frameworks and tools of low-carbon spatial governance,but there is still a lack of clear targets and action guidance of carbon constrain.It is urgent to fully integrate the Dual Carbon goals into the objective system,decision-making system and guarantee system of territorial spatial planning,in order to let planning play the overall leading role in spatial governance.First of all,it is not rational to talk about land without talking about climate change,and it is not possible to study land use uniquely and locally.Secondly,low-carbon and Dual Carbon goals are not exactly the same concept,and it is necessary to avoid the neglect of land in the study of Dual Carbon,and the confusion of Dual Carbon in the study of land space.Third,spatial optimization is a dynamic process,which requires great attention to deep uncertainty.Thus,It is essential for us to establish the identification and analysis method of the wickedness of territorial space,develop a coordinated evolution model of territorial space to cope with deep uncertainties,build a theoretical system of multi-objective optimization and regulation of territorial space.And it should carry out intensive research and theoretical construction along the four main axes:scientific cognition,information technology,intelligent planning and innovation system.