盐岩储气库稳定性评估模型与应用研究

Stability assessment of gas storage reservoirs based on integrated assignment-efficacy factor

为了解决盐岩储气库稳定性评估的模糊性和不确定性问题,降低事故发生的概率,提高判断准确度,将功效系数法引入盐岩储气库系统的评估与控制中,提出一种基于集成赋权-功效系数法的盐岩储气库稳定性评估模型。在所建评估体系下,运用反熵权法(AEW)、决策试验和评价试验法(DEMATEL)、改进组合数的有序加权平均C-OWA算子计算指标权重,三者优势互补,削弱了单一赋权方法的不足,并利用乘法合成原理获得综合权重。通过计算盐岩储气库的总功效系数值,评估整个系统的风险等级,最后利用实例,验证了模型的适用性与有效性。验证结果表明:该模型赋权方法可靠,计算结果贴近实际情况,能有效评估盐岩储气库的状态。

In order to reduce the probability of accidents and improve the accuracy of judgments,the stability assessment model of salt rock gas storage based on the integrated assignment-efficacy coefficient method is established to address the ambiguity and uncertainty of salt rock gas storage stability assessment,and the efficacy coefficient method is introduced into the assessment and control of salt rock gas storage system for the first time.Under the established assessment system,the inverse entropy weighting method(AEW),decision making test and evaluation test method(DEMATEL),and the ordered weighted average C-OWA operator with improved combination numbers are used to calculate the index weights,and the advantages of the three complement each other to weaken the shortcomings of a single assignment method,and the principle of multiplicative synthesis is used to obtain the integrated weights.By calculating the total efficacy coefficient value of salt rock gas storage,the risk level of the whole system is assessed,and finally the applicability and effectiveness of the model are verified by using examples.The results show that the model is reliable,the calculation results are close to the actual situation,and it can effectively evaluate the state of salt rock gas storage.