基于SPI-RRV指数中国气象干旱及其风险时空演变特征研究

Study on spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of meteorological drought and its risk in China based on SPI-RRV index

为全面揭示变化环境下我国多维气象干旱特征,耦合气象干旱指数(SPI)和可靠性-回弹性-脆弱性(RRV)指数,提出了一种基于SPI-RRV指数的干旱风险评价方法,定量评价了中国气象干旱及其风险的时空演变特征。结果表明:SPI-RRV指数具有特征稳定和时空可比性强的特点,能够较为准确地评估气象干旱风险时空演变特征;南方平均干旱栅格比、干旱月占比和频次大于北方,湿润区和半湿润区干旱历时短、烈度大,半干旱区和干旱区干旱历时长、烈度相对较小;干旱高风险区转移具有显著年代际变化规律,空间上从西北向西南地区转移。

To fully reveal multi-dimensional meteorological drought characteristics in China under changing environment,an SPI-RRV index-based drought risk assessment method was put forward by coupling the meteorological drought index(SPI)and the reliability-resilience-vulnerability(RRV)index to assess spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of meteorological drought and the drought risk in China.The results show that the SPI-RRV index has characteristics of high stability and strong spatio-temporal comparability,and can accurately assess spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of meteorological drought risk.The average drought grid ratio,proportion of drought months,and number of drought events in southem China are larger than those in northem China.Droughts in humid and semi-humid regions have higher intensity and shorter durations,while droughts in semi-arid and arid regions have lower intensity and longer durations.The transfer of high drought risk areas has a significant interdecadal variation pattern,with a transferring trend from northwest to southwest.