基于水循环全过程的旱涝级联效应研究框架

Research framework of drought-food cascade effect based on water cycle processes

气候变化与人类活动影响加剧背景下,亟须实现旱涝灾害风险精准防控。从孕育机理、传播机制、事件评价、风险评估、影响效应等方面回顾了旱涝事件研究现状,明晰了当前在旱涝事件演变机理和评价指标构建方面存在的不足。从水循环全过程视角,分析了干旱和洪涝事件在坡面、河道、流域和区域4个尺度与水量和效应2个层面的本质内涵、影响效应及评价方式。基于地表-土壤-地下、坡面-河道、支流-干流及水网工程间的水力联系,分别从水量和效应层面分析了不同空间尺度上干旱和洪涝的内在联系,明确了干旱、洪涝及旱涝级联过程本质上受流域调蓄作用的影响。从旱涝级联效应的内涵、类型、表现形式和关键技术等方面,提出了旱涝级联效应的研究框架。未来应从流域调蓄作用的视角量化不同空间尺度各要素调蓄能力变化,分层调蓄防范化解旱涝风险。

Under the background of climate change and the increasing impact of human activities,it is urgent to realize precise preventive control against drought and flood disaster risks.Research progress of drought and flood events was reviewed from the aspects of preparation mechanism,propagation mechanism,event evaluation,risk assessment,and impact effects.The current deficiencies in the evolution mechanism and the construction of evaluation indicators of drought and flood events were clarified.Essential connotation,impact effect,and evaluation methods of drought and flood events were analyzed from the perspective of the dualistic water cycle and its associated processes at four scales(slope,riverway,watershed,region)and two aspects(water volume and effects).Based on the hydraulic connections between surface-soil-underground,slope-river,tributary-main stream,and water network engineering,the internal relationship between drought and flood at different spatial scales is analyzed from the aspects of water volume and effects.It is clarified that drought,floods,and the cascading processes of drought and flood are essentially influenced by the regulation and storage effect of the watershed.From the aspects of connotation,type,form,and key technologies,the research framework of the drought-flood cascade effect is proposed.It is necessary to quantify the changes in regulation and storage capacity of various elements at different spatial scales from the perspective of basin regulation and storage effects to prevent and resolve drought and flood disaster risks.