淮河流域皖西大别山区地形因子与水系结构关联性分析

Analysis of correlation between watershed topographic factors and river system structure in Dabie Mountains in western Anhui Province of the Huaihe River Basin

为深入研究淮河流域皖西大别山区地形因子与水系结构的量化关系,基于ArcGIS对研究区地形因子及水系结构特征参数进行计算与提取,采用多元线性回归方法分析了地形因子与水系结构特征参数之间的关系,得到了针对细度比、河道维系常数、分形维数、平均长度比和流域圆度的5个定量预测模型,并利用全局空间自相关及空间冷热点分析对水系格局及地形特征的空间分布进行了研究。结果表明:研究区地形因子与水系结构特征参数在空间上普遍存在相关关系,相关系数r最高达0.84;5个定量预测模型显著性水平P值均小于0.05,方差膨胀因子均小于10,模型拟合优度较高;研究区水系结构特征参数和地形因子存在“北冷南热”和“北热南冷”的显著空间分异特征。

In order to deeply study the quantitative relationship between topographic factors and river system structure in the Dabie Mountains in western Anhui Province of the Huaihe River Basin,based on ArcGIS,the topographic factors and characteristic parameters of river system structure in the study area were calculated and extracted.The relationship between topographic factors and river system structure characteristic parameters was analyzed using multiple linear regression method,and five quantitative prediction models were obtained for fineness ratio,river maintenance constant,fractal dimension,average length ratio,and watershed roundness.And the spatial distribution of river system patterns and topographic features was studied using global spatial autocorrelation and spatial cold and hot spot analysis.The results show that there is a general spatial correlation between the topographic factors and the river system structure in the study area,with a maximum correlation coefficient r of 0.84.The significance level P-values of the five quantitative prediction models are all less than 0.05,and the variance inflation factor is all less than 10,indicating a high degree of goodness of fit for the models.It is found that there are significant spatial differentiation characteristics of“cold in the north and hot in the south”and“hot in the north and cold in the south”in the characteristic parameters of river system structure and topographic factors of the study area.