中国县城人口:变动特征、趋势研判和问题挑战

County Population in China:Dynamics,Trends and Challenges

推动县城高质量发展,需要以系统全面的视角把握好人口变动特征和趋势。全国县城人口规模占全国城镇人口的近30%,县城成为就近城镇化的重要载体;县城人口空间分布总体呈现“东密西疏”特征,县城人口规模分布“两极分化”明显;中心城市周边县城对人口集聚有明显吸引力,但部分县城人口受中心城市虹吸效应影响显著。与此同时,县城常住人口与公共资源配置明显“倒挂”、部分县城基本公共服务供给严重不足、人口减少县城“小城市病”凸显、县城制造业企业劳动力结构性短缺等问题突出。对此,需要顺应县城和县域人口流动变化趋势,因地制宜推动县城差异化发展,深化实施县城补短板强弱项行动,积极探索基层行政管理体制改革,构建县域多层次养老服务体系。

Promoting high-quality development of counties requires a systematic and comprehensive perspective on the characteristics and trends of population change.Counties nationwide account for nearly 30%of the total urban population in China,serving as pivotal entities for urbanization.The spatial distribution of county population generally presents a“dense in the east and sparse in the west”pattern,with a notable“polarization”in population size across these counties.The counties around the central cities exhibit a considerable attraction for population aggregation,yet some counties are significantly affected by the siphoning effect of the central cities in population.Meanwhile,theres a clear“inverted”relationship between the permanent county population and the allocation of public resources.Some counties suffer severely inadequate supply of basic public services,showcasing evident signs of“small-city syndrome”due to declining population.Additionally,structural shortages in labor within manufacturing enterprises in counties are becoming increasingly prominent.In response,its essential to adapt to the trends in population dynamics within counties.Tailoring development strategies to the specific circumstances of each county,deepening efforts to address weaknesses and strengths,and actively exploring reforms in grassroots administrative management are necessary.Moreover,it is crucial to construct a multi-level elderly care service system within counties.