基于GIS-DEA的中国城市群国际贸易发展质量分级与演化研究

Study on the quality classification and evolution of international trade development of Chinese urban agglomeration based on GIS-DEA

采用层次分析法构建国际贸易发展质量的评价指标体系,运用基于投入—产出分析视角的数据包络方法(DEA)和全要素TFP指数对城市使用外资效率和城市交通效率进行测度,并进一步采用熵值法对中国城市群国际贸易发展质量进行度量,在此基础上,运用GIS空间趋势面分析和空间演化格局分析对中国19大城市群的国际贸易发展演化进行研究,探索东、中、西部和东北地区城市群不同的国际贸易发展路径与空间演化趋势,并以长江三角洲城市群作为重点研究对象观测其历年来国际贸易发展的演变。研究发现:城市群使用外资效率、全要素生产率与国际贸易发展质量均表现出明显的“东高西低”空间结构特征,其中,东部城市群使用外资规模效率与国际贸易集聚效应尤为领先,长江三角洲城市群便是东部城市群国际贸易发展水平的鲜明缩影;中部城市群的国际贸易全要素生产率较高,但城市群内部国际贸易发展质量差异较大;西部城市群省会中心城市与直辖市的集聚效应极具优势,但城市群内部国际贸易发展质量出现严重的两极分化现象;在东北地区城市群中,辽中南城市群国际贸易发展质量优于哈长城市群,但东部地区城市群整体规模效率较低。文章针对东、中、西部和东北地区城市群国际贸易发展质量的提升分别提出了政策建议。

The analytic hierarchy process is used to construct an evaluation index system for the quality of international trade development,and the data envelopment method(DEA)and the total factor productivity(TFP)index based on the input-output analysis perspective are used to measure the efficiency of urban foreign investment use and urban transportation efficiency,and further the entropy method is adopted to measure the quality of the international trade development of China’s urban agglomerations.On this basis,GIS spatial trend surface analysis and spatial evolution pattern analysis are used to study the evolution of international trade development of China’s 19 urban agglomerations,and explore different international trade development paths and spatial evolution trends of urban agglomerations in east,middle,west and northeast regions.The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is used as a key research object to observe the evolution of international trade development over the years.The study finds that the efficiency of foreign capital use,total factor productivity,and the quality of international trade development of urban agglomerations all show obvious spatial structure characteristics of“high in the east and low in the west”.Among them,the scale and efficiency of foreign capital use and the cluster effect of international trade in the eastern urban agglomeration are particularly leading,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is a vivid epitome of the level of international trade development in the eastern urban agglomeration;the central urban agglomeration has a higher total factor productivity of international trade,but the quality of international trade development within the urban agglomeration is quite different;in the western urban agglomeration,the provincial capital,central municipality has great cluster effect advantages,but the quality of international trade development within the urban agglomeration is severely polarized;among the urban agglomerations in the northeast,the international trade development quality of the central and southern Liaoning urban agglomeration is better than that of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration,but the overall urban agglomeration in the eastern region scale efficiency is low.The article puts forward policy recommendations to improve the quality of international trade development in urban agglomerations in the eastern,central,western,and northeastern regions.