成渝地区双城经济圈产业融合发展:水平测度、时空分布及动力机制

Industrial convergence and development of Chengdu-Chongqing Double-city Economic Circle:Level measurement,spatiotemporal distribution and dynamic mechanism

“十四五”规划明确提出,推动现代服务业同先进制造业、现代农业深度融合,加快推进服务业数字化。稳定和优化成渝地区双城经济圈建设,是构建“双循环”战略布局的一项重大举措。提升产业融合发展水平,既能为增强成渝地区产业国际竞争力提供坚实基础,也是加快成渝地区双城经济圈产业链整体升级的重要路径。文章采用熵权法和耦合协调度的修正模型,测评了2010—2020年成渝地区双城经济圈一二三产业的发展水平,以及产业系统间的耦合协调水平,并刻画了其时空分布规律。进一步地,文章构建面板数据模型,综合检验了影响成渝地区双城经济圈产业融合发展的动力因素。研究表明:成渝地区双城经济圈产业发展水平整体呈上升趋势,农业指数相对偏低,工业发展稳中有升,服务业指数上升明显;研究区间内,成渝地区双城经济圈产业融合发展水平集中在0.30~0.49之间,整体融合程度偏低,产业融合发展水平较高地区的分布范围由北向南演进,逐渐成“环”;科技进步、人才资源和基础设施现代化对成渝地区双城经济圈产业融合发展呈正向驱动,市场需求、财政金融和对外贸易受行政分割的影响驱动作用发挥不足。针对上述问题,文章从加快区域市场一体化建设、提升产业链现代化水平和完善产业区域合作机制等方面提出政策建议。

The 14th Five Year Plan clearly proposes to promote the deep integration of modern service industry with advanced manufacturing industry and modern agriculture,and accelerate the digitization of service industry.Stabilizing and optimizing the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing Double-city Economic Circle is a major measure to build a dual cycle strategic layout.Improving the level of industrial integration and development not only provides a solid foundation for enhancing the international competitiveness of industries in Chengdu-Chongqing region,but also provides an important path for accelerating the overall upgrading of the“dual circulation”industrial chain.The article first uses the entropy weight method and the modified model of coupling coordination degree model to evaluate the development level of the primary,secondary,and tertiary industries in the Chengdu-Chongqing Double-city Economic Circle from 2010 to 2020,as well as the coupling coordination level between industrial systems,and characterizes its spatiotemporal distribution pattern.Further,the paper constructs a panel data model to comprehensively test the dynamic factors that affect the industrial integration and development of Chengdu Chongqing Double-city Economic Circle.The research results show that:firstly,the overall level of industrial development in the Chengdu-Chongqing Double-city Economic Circle is on the rise,with relatively low agricultural index,stable industrial development and significant increase in service industry index.Secondly,within the study area,the development level of Chengdu-Chongqing Double-city Economic Circle industrial integration is concentrated between 0.30 and 0.49,and the overall coordination degree is low.The distribution range of regions with high levels of industrial integration and development has evolved from north to south,gradually becoming a“ring”.Thirdly,technological progress,talent resources,and infrastructure are positively driving the integration and development of industries in the Chengdu-Chongqing Double-city Economic Circle.Market demand,fiscal finance,and foreign trade are underutilized as drivers influenced by the fragmentation of administrative power.In response to the above issues,the article proposes policy recommendations from accelerating the construction of regional market integration,enhancing the modernization level of the industrial chain,and improving industrial regional cooperation mechanisms.