转型抑或收缩:山西票号对辛亥革命的因应

Transformation or contraction:Shanxipiaohao’s response to the Revolution of 1911

山西票号不完全是辛亥革命的“承受体”,对革命的因应是透视其兴衰轨迹的关键。作为革命策源地,汉口票帮在武昌起义前已面临严重的市场风险和经营考验。市场环境方面,汉口的金融恐慌仍在延续,而票号的业务重心已从汇兑转向存放款,这意味着稍有不慎,卷入了钱庄业务链条的票号即面临放款无法收回的窘境。经营状况方面,受外部环境影响,票号数量总体上呈动态减少的趋势,经营业绩更是直线下降。武昌起义爆发后,汉口深陷动荡,在汉票号通过与山西总号的互动,着力解决票据账簿的保存、业务的收缩和调整以及债权债务的清理等问题。然而,由于革命的突发性强,外加长程通信导致的信息滞后,总号始终难以拿出有效的应对方案,分号实际拥有了自主处理本埠号务的权限。在这一过程中,票商面对严重的社会失范,更倾向于维护既有的经济社会秩序。这种诉求根源于其因应政治革命时的不利地位,即分号被迫收撤或迁址,金融运转被强行中断,造成大量坏账、呆账,尤其是当票商欲通过各方力量防止挤兑风潮和倒账危机的举措收效甚微时,其与新政府之间的信任隔阂也随之扩大。票商的因应机制充分证明,辛亥革命没有导致票号的根本衰亡,由政权鼎革所加剧的自身经营压力和动荡政局重塑了票号此后的发展路径,集中体现在民国初年票商拒绝金融转型的态度以及“缩小主义”的经营策略。在转型与收缩之间,票商理性而审慎地选择了后者,所谓错过合组银行的“历史机遇”不过是后来者对历史发展情境的理想预设。

Shanxi piaohao is not entirely the receiver of the Revolution of 1911,and its response to the revolution is the key to seeing its rise and fall.As the birthplace of the revolution,many branches in Hankou faced serious market risks and operational challenges before the Wuchang Uprising.In terms of the market environment,the financial panic in Hankou was still ongoing,and the focus of the piaohao’s business has shifted from exchange to deposit and loan.This means that if there is a slight carelessness,the piaohao involved in the bank’s business chain will face the dilemma that the loan cannot be recovered.In terms of operating conditions,due to the impact of the external environment,the number of branches has generally shown a decreasing trend,and the operating performance has plummeted.After the outbreak of the Wuchang Uprising,Hankou was deeply in turmoil.Through the interaction with Shanxi piaohao headquarter,Hankou branches focused on solving the problems of preserving bills and books,contracting and adjusting business,and liquidating creditor’s rights and debts.However,due to the suddenness of the revolution and the information lag caused by long-distance communication,the headquarter has always been unable to come up with effective response plans.At that time,branch managers actually had the authority to independently handle local affairs.In this process,businessmen are more inclined to maintain the existing economic and social order in the face of serious social anomie.This appeal was rooted in its disadvantageous position in response to the political revolution,that is,the piaohao branch was forced to withdraw or relocate,and the financial operation was forcibly interrupted,resulting in a large number of bad debts,especially when the measures taken by the piaohao merchants to prevent the run and the crisis of bad debts through various forces had little effect,the trust gap between them and the new government also widened.The coping mechanism of merchants fully proves that the Revolution of 1911 did not lead to the fundamental decline of the piaohao.The operating pressure and turbulent political situation exacerbated by the regime change reshaped the development path of Shanxi piaohao,which was embodied in the attitude of refusing financial transformation and the management strategy of downsizing in the early Republic of China.Between transformation and contraction,businessmen chose the latter rationally and prudently.The so-called missed historical opportunity to transform into a bank is just an ideal presupposition of historical development scenarios by later generations.