基于中国省域数据人口城镇化率的修正

Revision of Population Urbanization Rate Based on China’s Provincial Data

文章先以国家统计局公布的人口普查数据与联合国法为基础,采用多种修正模型得到符合中国实际情况的人口城镇化率增长曲线;再根据中国实际情况来修正全国及各省份的人口城镇化率,并通过夜间灯光数据对修正结果进行佐证。结果表明:首先,不同修正方法的行政统计值偏差率差异较小,受到人口普查统计“一次性修正”的影响,距离普查统计年份越远的年份偏差率越大;其次,采用基于普查修正值的普查数据修正法得到的人口城镇化率修正结果弥补了统计年鉴直接将第七次全国人口普查数据作为2020年年末人口城镇化率的缺陷,相较于仅使用联合国法的人口城镇化率理论值、基于行政统计值的行政数据修正法得到的人口城镇化率修正结果,更贴近理论与实际;再次,修正后的全国人口城镇化率与夜间灯光数据的相关系数均在0.90以上,修正后的省份人口城镇化率变化与夜间灯光数据的变化基本吻合;最后,由于上海进入人口城镇化“趋零阶段”,黑龙江、内蒙古出现人口大量流失与城市收缩现象,因此影响了夜间灯光数据对人口城镇化率的佐证结果。

Based on the data of the censuses published by the National Bureau of Statistics and the United Nations Law,this paper uses a variety of modified models to obtain growth curve in line with population urbanization.Then,according to China’s actual situation,population urbanization rate of China and each province is revised,whose revised results are supported by nighttime light data.The results go as below:First,the difference of sampling deviation rate between different correction methods is small,which is affected by the“one-time revision”of census statistics.The further away from the census statistics year,the greater the deviation rate.Second,the revised result of population urbanization rate obtained by using the method of revising census data based on census revision value makes up for the defect that the statistical yearbook directly uses the 7th National Population Census as population urbanization rate at the end of 2020.Compared with the theoretical value of population urbanization rate only obtained by the United Nations Law and the administrative data correction method based on administrative statistical values,population urbanization rate based on the sample survey value of the United Nations method is closer to the theory and practice.Then,the correlation between the revised national population urbanization rate and the nighttime light data is above 0.90,and the revised provincial population urbanization rate is basically consistent with the change of nighttime light data.Finally,because Shanghai has entered the“zeroing stage”of population urbanization,large population loss and urban shrinkage occur in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia,which has affected the supporting results of nighttime light data on population urbanization rate.