“一带一路”倡议与中国制造业出口竞争力提升——基于“五通”机制的分析

The Belt and Road Initiative and the Improvement of Export Competitiveness of China’s Manufacturing Industry--Analysis Based on the“Five Links”Mechanism

新发展格局下,“一带一路”倡议成为提升中国制造业出口竞争力的重要推动力。本文基于“一带一路”倡议的准自然实验,匹配多个数据库收集了192个国家2009~2021年的面板数据,利用多期双重差分法模型和中介效应模型检验“一带一路”倡议对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响。结果表明:“一带一路”倡议显著提升了中国制造业出口竞争力,该结果通过了多重稳健性检验。在影响机制方面,“一带一路”倡议对中国制造业出口竞争力提升效应主要通过政策沟通、资金融通、设施联通和贸易畅通机制促进,且其对总效应贡献率分别达到55.435%、24.793%、8.664%和7.452%,民心相通机制暂未发挥应有作用。异质性分析发现,就区域而言,“一带一路”倡议对中国制造业出口竞争力的提升效应更明显地表现为面向“一带一路”沿线国家和政治稳定安全的国家;就产品而言,相较于资本密集型制造业产品,劳动密集型产品的提升效果更明显。

Under the new development pattern,the“Belt and Road”initiative has become an important driving force to enhance the export competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry.Therefore,based on the quasi natural experiment of the“Belt and Road”initiative,this study matched multiple databases to collect panel data from 192 countries from 2009 to 2021,and tested the impact of the“Belt and Road”initiative on China’s manufacturing export competitiveness using the multi period double difference model and the intermediary effect model.The results show that:(a)The“Belt and Road”initiative has signifi cantly improved the export competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry,and this result has passed multiple robustness tests.(b)In terms of impact mechanism,the effect of the“Belt and Road”initiative on improving China’s manufacturing export competitiveness is mainly promoted through policy communication,financial intermediation,facility connectivity and unimpeded trade mechanism,and its contribution rate to the total effect has reached 55.435%,24.793%,8.664%and 7.452%respectively.The mechanism of people to people connection has not yet played its due role.(c)The heterogeneity analysis fi nds that,in terms of regions,the promotion effect of the“Belt and Road”initiative on China’s manufacturing export competitiveness is more obvious for countries along the“Belt and Road”and countries with political stability and security;Compared to capital intensive manufacturing products,labor-intensive products have a more signifi cant improvement effect on products.