2001—2020年国际舆论研究的进展和趋向——基于《舆论季刊》和《国际舆论研究》的内容分析

Progress and Trends of International Public Opinion Research From 2001 to 2020:Based on the Content Analysis of Public Opinion Quarterly and International Public Opinion Research

《舆论季刊》和《国际舆论研究》是国际上具有重要影响力的舆论研究期刊,其刊文一定程度上反映了国际舆论研究的现状与发展趋势。2001—2020年间,这两本刊物刊发了807篇研究论文。对这些论文的内容分析结果显示:北美洲地区以及高校机构的研究者较为活跃,形成了以政府和政治学、社会学、传播学为主力的研究队伍;政治与选举、舆论调查方法为主要研究议题,性别、移民等社会问题研究为补充;更多开展实质性研究,注重态度层面的舆论效果研究;以实证研究为主,依赖传统调查法;跨学科合作水平不断提高,但新学科组合鲜见;拥有较高的理论构建水平,缺乏理论创新。未来需要提升研究方法和研究样本的多样性,加强理论批评、改进,吸纳不同学科协同参与,共同推进舆论研究向前发展。

By using the methods of content analysis,text mining based on deep learning and social network analysis,this study examined 807 research papers published in Public Opinion Quarterly and International Public Opinion Research from 2001 to 2020,and comprehensively explored the status quo and development trend of international public opinion research from the aspects of researchers,research contents,research methods and theoretical construction.The results show that researchers in North America and universities are more active,forming a research team focusing on government and political science,sociology,and communication;politics,elections and public opinion survey methods are the main research topics,supplemented by such social issues as gender,immigration,etc.;the researchers carry out more substantive research and pay attention to the effect of public opinion at the attitude level;the researchers mainly use empirical research and rely on traditional survey methods;the level of interdisciplinary cooperation has been improved,but the combination of new disciplines is rare;the researchers have a high level of theoretical construction but lack of theoretical innovation.Future research needs to enhance the diversity of research methods and research samples,strengthen theoretical criticism,improve and attract the collaborative participation of different disciplines,and jointly promote the development of public opinion research.