基于SWAT模型的那棱格勒河流域径流模拟及水量平衡分析

Runoff Simulation andWater Balance Analysis in the Nalenggele River Basin Using the SWAT Model

那棱格勒河是柴达木盆地内流域面积和流量最大的内陆河流。本文在那棱格勒河上游构建了SWAT分布式水文模型,采用SUFI-2算法进行参数敏感度分析、率定和验证,对1979—2018年的月值径流量进行模拟分析。结果表明,敏感度最强的前3个参数依次为融雪基温、降雪气温及气温直减率,在率定期和验证期决定系数R^(2)和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别高于0.81和0.65。水量平衡分析结果显示1979—2018年流域的蒸发量、地表径流量、地下水补给量、地下侧流量分别占降水的92.30%、17.76%、16.18%和5.84%。表明流域内径流量主要来自冰雪融水,各水量平衡分量受温度影响较大。降水量变化趋势与地表径流量变化趋势较一致,说明降水转化为径流的时间较短。本研究对那棱格勒河流域水文研究及水资源调控具有参考意义。

The Nalenggele River is the largest inland river in terms of both drainage area and runoffin the Qaidam Basin.In this study,we developed a distributed hydrological model,SWAT,and employed the SUFI-2 algorithmto performparameter sensitivity analysis,calibration,and validation,conducting simulation analyses on monthly runoff data of the upper reaches of the NalenggeleRiver,spanning from 1979 to 2018.Our findings reveal that three parameters exhibit the highest sensitivity:snowmelt base temperature,snowfall temperature,and temperature reduction rate.During both the calibration and validation periods,the coefficient of determination(R^(2))and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient exceed 0.81 and 0.65,respectively.A water balance analysis sheds light on the contribution of various components to the precipitation from 1979 to 2018.Specifically,evaporation,surface runoff,groundwater recharge,and groundwater lateral flow account for 70.89%,12.99%,11.84%,and 4.27%of the precipitation,respectively.The primary source of runoff in the basin is snow and ice melt,with temperature exerting a significant impact on the factors of the water balance.Furthermore,trend analysis demonstrates a consistent correlation between precipitation and surface runoff,indicating a relatively short timeframe for precipitation to transform into runoff.This research has significant implications for hydrological research and the management of water resources in the Nalenggele River Basin.