风险偏好还是风险规避?政策风险差异在新兴经济体跨国企业对外直接投资中的作用

Risk Preference or Risk Aversion?The Role of Policy Risk Difference in the Outward Foreign Direct Investment of Multinational Enterprises from Emerging Economies

针对新兴经济体跨国企业对外直接投资的“政策风险偏好”问题,基于组织学习理论,构建关于政策风险差异与新兴经济体跨国企业对外直接投资之间关系的理论分析框架,并阐释制度质量和经济依赖的调节作用。然后运用拓展的引力模型,基于2009—2019年中国对外直接投资数据进行实证检验。结果显示:政策风险差异对中国企业对外直接投资有显著负向影响,制度质量和经济依赖能够明显弱化政策风险差异的不利影响。异质性分析表明,在发展水平较高东道国、与中国政治关系不够密切东道国以及中国援助较少东道国,政策风险差异的负向影响尤为显著。因此,中国等新兴经济体跨国企业的对外直接投资仍具有强烈的风险规避动机,其投资区位更倾向于选择与母国政策风险差异较小的东道国,同时也会综合考虑东道国制度和发展水平以及双边政治和经济往来而做出系统性决策,这对新兴经济体跨国企业对外直接投资区位选择具有启示意义。

Regarding the“policy risk preference”phenomenon of multinational enterprises from emerging economies,this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework on the relationship between policy risk difference and the outward foreign direct investment of multinational enterprises from emerging economies based on the organizational learning theory,and further explains the moderating effects of institutional quality and economic dependence.On the basis of theoretical analysis,using the extended gravity model,an empirical test is carried out with China's outward foreign direct investment data from 2009 to 2019.The results show that there is a significant negative relationship between policy risk difference and the outward foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises.Institutional quality and economic dependence significantly weaken the negative impact of policy risk difference.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative impact of policy risk differences is particularly significant in host countries with higher levels of development,host countries with insufficient political relations with China,and host countries with less aid from China.Therefore,although multinational enterprises from emerging economies have entered some locations with higher macro-policy risks,their foreign direct investment is more inclined to choose host countries with less policy risk differences from the home country.This actually follows a risk-averse investment decision.At the same time,a systematic location decision-making framework will be made by comprehensively considering the host country institution and development level,as well as bilateral political and economic exchanges.The conclusion provides a new theoretical perspective for the policy risk study.It will also have enlightenment significance for the outward foreign direct investment location choice of multinational enterprise from emerging economies.