中国技术贸易与经济增长关系研究——基于协整与误差修正模型的分析

Study on the Relationship between China’s Technology Trade and Economic Growth:Analysis Based on Cointegration and Error Correction Models

第二次世界大战后,国际技术贸易开始形成规模并迅速扩大,已经成为推动各国乃至世界经济发展的助推器。本文从中国技术贸易与经济发展的现状出发,运用协整与误差修正模型对1985—2020年中国技术贸易与经济增长的长期均衡与短期调整关系进行了实证分析。研究认为,技术贸易收支比对GDP增速在短期和长期均有负向影响,但长期影响比短期影响大;技术贸易收支比对GDP增速之间具有短期反向调整机制,但调整力度较小。为顺应全球技术贸易发展趋势,中国应致力于构建国际科技合作新机制,积极参与国际技术贸易规则标准建设,同时加强技术贸易安全管理。

After World War II,international technology trade began to take shape and rapidly expansion,becoming a booster for promoting economic development in various countries and even the world.It starts from the current situation of China’s technology trade and economic development,and uses cointegration and error correction models to empirically analyze the long‐term equilibrium and short‐term adjustment relationship between China’s technology trade and economic growth from 1985 to 2020.It suggests that technology trade balance has a negative impact on GDP growth rate in both the short and long term,but the long‐term impact is greater than the short‐term impact.There is a short‐term reverse adjustment mechanism between the technology trade balance and GDP growth rate,but the adjustment effort is relatively small.In order to comply with the trend of global technology trade development,China should strive to build a new mechanism for international technology cooperation,actively participate in the construction of international technology trade rules and standards,and strengthen the management of technology trade security.