2013—2021年临沂市四类主要慢性病早死概率及趋势分析

Probability and trend of premature death of four major chronic diseases in Linyi City in 2013-2021

目的了解2013—2021年临沂市居民4类主要慢性病死亡率与早死概率情况,为科学制定慢性病防制策略提供数据支撑。方法对临沂市2013—2021年主要慢性病死亡数据进行分析,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率与早死概率,并利用年均变化百分比(APC)分析死亡率及早死概率的变化趋势。结果临沂市4类慢性病年均粗死亡率为538.98/10万,标化死亡率为387.3/10万。粗死亡率由2013年517.37/10万上升至2021年的563.13/10万(APC=0.89%,P=0.01)。男性主要慢性病粗死亡率、标化死亡率均高于女性(P<0.05)。临沂市4类主要慢性病年均早死概率为13.37%,早死概率由2013年14.49%下降至2021年12.32%(APC=-2.1%,P=0.00)。2013—2021年临沂市居民恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病及慢性呼吸系疾病早死概率分别由6.14%、7.47%、1.21%下降至5.52%、6.46%、0.5%(APC分别为-1.2%、-2.1%、-11.3%,P分别为0.04、0.00、0.00);糖尿病早死概率保持稳定。2013—2021年临沂市男性居民4类主要慢性病早死概率均高于女性(P<0.05)。结论2013—2021年临沂市居民4类主要慢性病早死概率呈下降趋势,下一步应加强糖尿病防控工作力度。

Objective To analyze the mortality rate and probability of premature death caused by four major noninfectious chronic diseases(NCDs)in Linyi City from 2013 to 2021,and to provide data support for scientific formulation of chronic disease prevention and control strategy.Methods The mortality data of major chronic diseases in Linyi City from 2013 to 2021 were analyzed.The crude mortality,age-standardized mortality and premature death probability were calculated.The annual percent change(APC)was adopted to analyze the temporal trend of mortality and probability of premature death.Results The average annual crude mortality of four major NCDs was 538.98/100000,and the age-standardized mortality was 387.3/100000.The crude mortality rate increased from 517.37/100000 in 2013 to 563.13/100000 in 2021(APC=0.89%,P=0.01).The crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of four major NCDs in males were higher than those in females(P<0.05).The average annual probability of premature death caused by four major NCDs was 13.37%.The probability of premature death decreased from 14.49%in 2013 to 12.32%in 2021(APC=-2.1%,P=0.00).From 2013 to 2021,the probability of premature death from malignant tumors,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,and chronic respiratory diseases in Linyi City dropped from 6.14%,7.47%,and 1.21%to 5.52%,6.46%,and 0.5%,respectively(APCs were-1.2%,-2.1%,and-11.3%,respectively,and P values were 0.04,0.00,and 0.00,respectively).The probability of premature death from diabetes remained stable.The probability of premature death caused by four major NCDs in males was higher than that in females(P<0.05).Conclusion The probability of premature death of the four major NCDs in Linyi has showed a downward trend during 2013-2021.It is suggested to strengthen the prevention and control of diabetes in the next step.