武汉城市圈土地利用及生态系统服务价值时空演变多情景模拟

Multi-scenario Simulation of Temporal-spatial Evolution of Land Uses and Ecosystem Services in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration

探究多情景下的武汉城市圈土地利用及生态系统服务价值(ESV)动态变化特征及规律,对区域土地利用规划调整和生态系统保护具有重要意义。基于1990、2000、2010和2020年土地利用数据,揭示了武汉城市圈土地利用和ESV时空演变趋势;运用CA-Markov模型模拟了趋势继承、耕地保护、生态保护、耕地与生态兼顾4种情景下武汉城市圈的土地利用情况,分析了ESV结构变化趋势和空间流动特征。结果表明:(1)1990~2020年,武汉城市圈土地利用变化呈现显著的阶段特征,总体上表现为耕地大幅度转入建设用地和水域,导致耕地锐减1868 km^(2),林地和水域有较大幅度转向建设用地,导致建设用地持续增长1569.93 km^(2);ESV呈不断下降趋势,降幅达1.66%,武汉市区、仙桃市和潜江市等地区ESV波动较大;(2)趋势继承、耕地保护情景下ESV损失量较高,分别为1.17和0.81亿元,主要受到林地、水域减少的影响;生态保护情景次之,耕地的减少是其ESV减少的主要原因;耕地与生态兼顾情景下由于水域、林地扩张导致ESV以武汉市为中心向四周辐射式增长;(3)ESV空间流动变化幅度较小,整体表现为由东部、南部的周边高ESV城市向中心区域流入,蕲春县、罗田县和赤壁市等城市是主要的ESV流出地。

Investigation on the characteristics and regulations of changes of land use and ecosystem service value(ESV)in the Wuhan urban agglomeration under multiple scenarios is of significant for regional land use planning and ecosystem conservation.Based on the land use data in 1990,2000,2010 and 2020,we revealed the temporal-spatial evolution trends of land use and ESV in Wuhan urban agglomeration;We simulated the land use in Wuhan urban agglomeration under four scenarios of tendency inheritance,cultivated land preservation,ecological conservation,and balanced cultivated land and ecological using CA-Markov model,and analyzed the structural change trends and spatial flow characteristics of ESV.The results showed that:(1)From 1990 to 2020,land use changes in the Wuhan urban agglomeration presented significant phase characteristics,which generally showed a substantial transfer of cultivated land to construction land and water,resulting in a sharp loss of 1868 km^(2)of cultivated land,while forest land and water area had a relatively significant shift to construction land,leading to a continuous expansion of 1569.93 km^(2)of construction land.The ESV showed a decreasing trend of 1.66%.Fluctuations of ESV in the urban area of Wuhan,Xiantao and Qianjiang were obvious.(2)Tendency inheritance and cultivated land conservation scenarios had elevated ESV losses of 117 million yuan and 81 million yuan respectively,which were primarily influenced by the decreased forest land and water areas;the ecological preservation scenario followed,and the reduction of cultivated land played a prominent role in the reduction of ESV;the cultivated land and ecological balance scenario caused the expansion of water areas and forest land,contributing to the radiating increase of ESV centered in Wuhan City.(3)The magnitude of variation in ESV spatial mobility was relatively moderate,displaying an overall inflow from the surrounding higher ESV cities in the eastern and southern regions to the regional center.The dominating ESV outflow cities were QiChun County,Luotian County and Chibi.