经济结构转型的碳减排效应

The effect of economic structural transformation on carbon emission reduction

【目的】在技术创新减排效应边际递减背景下,挖掘经济结构转型的碳减排潜力对实现双碳目标具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于投入产出理论和结构分解分析,构建了一个描述经济转型驱动碳减排的解释性框架,运用中国2007—2017年的多区域投入产出表以及相应的碳排放数据,分别从产业和空间维度,系统分析能源结构、投入结构、中间生产结构、消费结构、投资结构与出口结构动态调整对碳减排的贡献,并按全国、区域和地区3个层次分别展开讨论。【结果】①观察期内由于结构变动带来的碳减排量约为1726.82百万t,中国经济实现了从技术降碳到结构减排的动力转换;②中间生产结构优化是结构性减排的支柱力量,且经济部门间产业结构优化效应远大于地区间资源要素再配置带来的空间结构优化效应;③区域内产业结构优化的碳减排效应更为显著,地理区位存在先天劣势的内陆地区并未能实现区域协同联动下的碳减排;④地区发展水平与经济结构转型的碳减排效应间主要表现出“尾部效应”和“规模效应”特征。【结论】经济结构转型是实现碳减排的关键路径,生产侧和需求侧结构优化形成的“双轮驱动”效应有助于持续推动中国低碳转型发展。

[Objective]In the context of the marginal reduction effect of technological innovation,it is of great significance to investigate the carbon reduction potential of economic structural transformation to achieve the“dual carbon”goal.[Methods]Based on the input-output theory and structural decomposition analysis,this study constructed an explanatory framework to describe the carbon emission reduction driven by economic transformation.The multi-regional input-output table and corresponding carbon emission data of China from 2007 to 2017 were used for the analyses from the industrial and spatial dimensions respectively.The contribution of the dynamic adjustments of energy structure,input structure,intermediate production structure,consumption structure,investment structure,and export structure to carbon emission reduction was systematically analyzed,and discussed at the national,regional,and provincial levels respectively.[Results](1)During the study period,the carbon emission reduction caused by structural changes was about 1.727 billion tons,and China’s economy realized the power transformation from technology-driven carbon reduction to structural change-driven emission reduction;(2)The optimization of intermediate production structure was the pillar of structural change-driven emission reduction,and the effect of industrial structure optimization among economic sectors is much greater than that of spatial structure optimization caused by inter-regional resource factor reallocation;(3)The carbon emission reduction effect of industrial structure optimization within each region was more significant,and the inland regions with inherent geographical disadvantages failed to realize the spatial allocation optimization under regional synergy.The carbon emission reduction effect of the eastern region,whether it is fully developed within the region or due to coordinated development between regions,took lead in the country.(4)Regional development level and economic structural change carbon emission reduction effect mainly showed the characteristics of“tail effect”and“scale effect”,in which the investment structure emission reduction had scale effect,but the factor input still faced structural imbalance,resulting in the increase of carbon emissions caused by the change of factor input structure in provinces with large populations and economic scale.[Conclusion]Economic structure transformation is an important path to achieving carbon emission reduction.Through the“two-wheel driving”effect of production side and demand side structure optimization on carbon emission reduction,China’s low-carbon transformation development will be continuously promoted.